economic decline

**ksbowman** · 07-18-2019, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by D2Reid

Source please. While I can see a slight increase in prices because a lot of the components are built in China, I can't see this a the only reason for price increases. A decline in RV sales was inevitable. Baby boomer numbers peaking and now receding, saturation of the 30 something market. The huge upswing in the RV market could not possible be sustained, there just aren't enough people capable of purchasing RV's. The next 3-5 years will see a buyers market in used RV's as people suddenly realize they are not using that expensive RV they purchased, they will shocked by the extreme loss of value.

I agree with this look as many new units have been purchased over the last few years and there will be, and is a glut of used units available at good prices and they are more attractive than the brands new units with higher prices.

**chemist308** · 07-18-2019, 10:20 PM

I'm certainly liking the stock prices of the fear indexes (inverse ETFs) at current levels. Didn't think the market would recover as quickly as it did from December...

**minnow101** · 07-19-2019, 05:29 AM

The article I read yesterday was from Reuter’s. The writer tended to blame the decline on RV sales on tariffs. But the slide in sales of RV’s started long before those were implemented. Elkhart has had a terrific run in sales over the past several and most that have wanted an RV now have an RV. Combine that with slipshod manufacturing, extremely poor service, long wait times, social media and a generation of buyers that don’t know a screwdriver from a table saw and the RV manufacturers have no one to blame but themselves.

**J&G garage** · 07-19-2019, 08:09 AM

Originally Posted by J&J___

We did a Grand Design factory tour a few weeks ago and they said GD sales were down 20%.

This kind of flies in the face of the announcement the leadership team made a few weeks ago in the media. They are adding 175,000 square feet of manufacturing space to keep up with demand. They claim that although the RV market is down overall GD is getting more market share so their business is increasing. Sooo someone is fibbing somewhere me thinks.

**huntr70** · 07-19-2019, 08:20 AM

Originally Posted by livinthelife

The takeover by Winnebago may have contributed to that.

The takeover was almost 3 years ago....

The whole industry is down this year. We are down about the same 13-15% over last year at this time.

**Dick Noble** · 07-19-2019, 08:29 AM

Source = MSN yesterday. Article mentioned that the big increase in price was from steel.

**D2Reid** · 07-19-2019, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by Dick Noble

Source = MSN yesterday. Article mentioned that the big increase in price was from steel.

Good article. I looked at RVIA web sight who said deliveries were down 14%. I don't view this as bad news overall, while booming years are great they cannot be sustained and the RV Park industry is straining to keep up with the number of RV's out there. National Parks and State Parks are pretty much booked solid all summer.

I am hoping the less demand will see an improvement in overall quality of build, the installers shouldn't feel as rushed as they have been.

**KirbyRVA** · 07-19-2019, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by minnow101

The article I read yesterday was from Reuter’s. The writer tended to blame the decline on RV sales on tariffs. But the slide in sales of RV’s started long before those were implemented. Elkhart has had a terrific run in sales over the past several and most that have wanted an RV now have an RV. Combine that with slipshod manufacturing, extremely poor service, long wait times, social media and a generation of buyers that don’t know a screwdriver from a table saw and the RV manufacturers have no one to blame but themselves.

I am in agreement with this. There were several reasons we sold our nice, used motorhome and came off the road. One was the difficulty getting good RV spots in desirable destinations. So many new families with RV's and too few RV spots. Another reason was, as our motorhome was aging, the increased opportunity for stuff breaking that I could not fix while we were in locations where decent service would be hard to find.

IMO, now is not the time (never a good time really) to owe a bunch of money on an RV. That said, with the inventory I am seeing on many dealer lots, an economic downturn should provide some good deals for those who can pay cash.

**FR8TFLYER** · 07-19-2019, 01:41 PM

Cash is best. When we purchased ours they said we had to finance it for a minimum of 6 months to get the deal. I refused and left and continued to shop around but could not find the same deal within 100 miles. I went back and did the deal, called Bank of America and they said there was no penalty to pay it off early so we did. We figured this was a toy and no way would I finance a toy or luxury item.

**el Rojo** · 07-19-2019, 02:27 PM

Originally Posted by FR8TFLYER

Cash is best. When we purchased ours they said we had to finance it for a minimum of 6 months to get the deal. I refused and left and continued to shop around but could not find the same deal within 100 miles. I went back and did the deal, called Bank of America and they said there was no penalty to pay it off early so we did. We figured this was a toy and no way would I finance a toy or luxury item.

What happens then is the dealer lost his commission on the loan since it was paid off before 6 months. I've been told by car dealers it's 3 months.