economic decline

[minnow101]

While I am hopeful for the economy in whole, I wonder if the RV market is saturated or is it over-sold?

New RVers are often disappointed when they are faced with the inevitable: gas prices, maintenance, storage, depreciation, and overcrowded campgrounds.

Booking campsites 6-12 months in advance is the new normal. It would not hurt my feelings to have less competition for camping.

I agree. There are several issues in play here; none of them bode well for continued growth in the RV world. Record sales over the past several years has scratched the itch of many buyers. Poor quality control/build/cost cutting has given Elkhart a well deserved reputation for building junk. Todays buyers are internet/social media savvy and aren’t the least bit shy to express their disappointment with what they bought. The long view is that unhappy newbies equals no more upgrades to a larger/different unit.

[rcboals]

A lot of economic indicators are suggesting we are headed for downturn in economy and RV declining sales is one of them. The economy is like a roller coaster it goes up and then comes down; always has and always will.

If you invest some money in the market and go long or short it doesn't matter. The market will do exactly the opposite of what you think it will do. This has worked for my entire life.

[Skirugger]

I agree. There are several issues in play here; none of them bode well for continued growth in the RV world. Record sales over the past several years has scratched the itch of many buyers. Poor quality control/build/cost cutting has given Elkhart a well deserved reputation for building junk. Todays buyers are internet/social media savvy and aren’t the least bit shy to express their disappointment with what they bought. The long view is that unhappy newbies equals no more upgrades to a larger/different unit.

Minnow, you hit the nail directly on the head for me! We are young (relatively) with thankfully, a large amount of disposable income, and more than that a desire to spend it on the things we prioritize (in our case, memories with our children). We were on the brink of deciding to UPGRADE our Imagine and our F250, to a brand new Solitude and F350 DRW, but more than anything, the build quality (not saying that GD won’t try to fix it) and apparent headache of living-with or fixing small problems made us back down from pulling the trigger. We tried the arguments of “it’ll last until we buy our retirement rig if we upgrade”..... no it won’t.

Our experience with GD putting the wrong spec’d axels and springs on our TT really soured us. I asked for the 2200lb and was told “not needed”. Well, yes they are, and 800lbs of TT payload is a ridiculous hamper to our ambitions. So, long story shortened, GD helped talk us out of a Solitude upgrade, by screwing up our experience with the entry level product. Seems silly to me to risk losing thousands over 10’s of dollars but that’s the road they took. Love RVing, and happy to have our TT but I feel zero compassion for the industry that operates that way (I do acknowledge GD is probably the best, but to us and our money, it’s not good enough).

[carnolddsm]

The RV industry deliverys have been down most of 2018 and all of 2019.

One of the key contributors to the boom was pent up demand from the last recession. Continued sales at the 2015 to 2017 rate would require growing the underlying demand, something the RV industry has not had a lot of success with.

Is the economy slowing? Maybe, probably, however I wouldn’t count on the RV industry as a leading indicator.

[Houndbb]

Changing trends within the population with the disposable income. These days, it’s all about immediate gratification: cruise, southern island all-inclusive, guided trek-adventure, whatever, they want to pay to have it put in front of them. Had a great time, been there, done that, on to the next. Prediction: used RVs for sale-thick on the ground.

[bussro]

I think it is a stretch to blame the decline in new RV sales solely on tariffs. There is more to the story than tariffs.

[Scousers]

After initial build quality, service is a major factor. Prior to retirement I was a Mercury (boating) dealer. They embarked on a service driven strategy...details are probably proprietary. We ended up being the first dealer in the south west to be rated at the highest level and it paid off for us and Mercury. My experience with the RV industry (Camping World and Lazy Days) has been a disaster when it comes to service. No wonder there are disillusioned buyers sticking with what they have.

[tedzz9]

As long as the bourbon market is stable,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,😎

[Davidsofia]

I don’t think the Federal Reserve looks at RV sales as a leading economic indicator of our future economy. The economy has always been cyclical, and one would expect the future to be no less so. That being said, there comes a time in a limited niche market where saturation of demand occurs. It’s the same in automobiles. After many years since the housing bust, people that have old cars have replaced them, and the other ones are still being paid off or are too new to think about upgrading. Auto sales are down, but Jobs are up, salaries are up over inflation for the first time in twenty years, more people in the workforce since the 1970s, etc. I personally think you have to look at Travel trailer sales in the context of automobiles. With the mandated trend toward fuel efficiency, there’s fewer vehicles capable of towing them. Has this has narrowed an already niche market? I think so.

[SF-SGM]

Economy as big as ours can coast for a long time on fumes. We are likely already in the spiral, Atlanta fed has 1.4 to 1.8 % gdp but don't forget we're spending an extra trillion in deficit spending. The fed will likely reduce 25 to 50 basis points at the end of the month and the market will love the idea of it right up to the cuts. If we get 50, maybe a bit after and then there will be a sell off as the high valuations and idea of buying at the first cut is usually a very bad idea. We will be following the rest of the world with 0 rates and wondering where inflation went.

I shouldn't have to tell you that zero or negative rates are bad for insurance companies, pension funds and not being able to stimulate a demand based, service focused economy is a bad situation. We have borrowed all we can and have seen peak population growth long ago. At this stage the population demographics are hard to over come, creating the real threat of deflation.

No we haven't borrowed all we can. Just take a look at what our Congress did a few days ago with the budget. They are like pigs at the trough. The Santa Claus politicians will continue until we are like Greece or we turn them out.