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Thread: economic decline
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07-18-2019, 04:57 PM #1
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economic decline
Just read a report that sales of RV's have begun a slide downwards. This started in late 2018 and has continued as tariffs have pushed prices up. There has been a slide like this before the last three economic downturns. There have been layoffs at some RV manufacturers.
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07-18-2019, 05:22 PM #2
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A lot of economic indicators are suggesting we are headed for downturn in economy and RV declining sales is one of them. The economy is like a roller coaster it goes up and then comes down; always has and always will.
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07-18-2019, 05:30 PM #3
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Economy as big as ours can coast for a long time on fumes. We are likely already in the spiral, Atlanta fed has 1.4 to 1.8 % gdp but don't forget we're spending an extra trillion in deficit spending. The fed will likely reduce 25 to 50 basis points at the end of the month and the market will love the idea of it right up to the cuts. If we get 50, maybe a bit after and then there will be a sell off as the high valuations and idea of buying at the first cut is usually a very bad idea. We will be following the rest of the world with 0 rates and wondering where inflation went.
I shouldn't have to tell you that zero or negative rates are bad for insurance companies, pension funds and not being able to stimulate a demand based, service focused economy is a bad situation. We have borrowed all we can and have seen peak population growth long ago. At this stage the population demographics are hard to over come, creating the real threat of deflation.Last edited by Aridon; 07-18-2019 at 05:52 PM.
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07-18-2019, 05:35 PM #4
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Conversely, might like to compare with hotel occupancy stats, or vacation rentals. Are these declining or rising? It takes a different mentality to commit to a depreciating, rolling vacation home. Some people don’t want the hassle.
Bruce and Nancy
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07-18-2019, 06:48 PM #5
Interesting thread
This seems to me like deciding to put in a storm shelter where you get a tornado every 50 years.
Is a crash going to happen, yes
Should you be terrified to where you wait for it and you end up missing out of a lot of what you wanted to, probably not.
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07-18-2019, 08:03 PM #6
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I know the answer -- make me King. Should be easy, I'm already a Noble.
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07-18-2019, 08:16 PM #7
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07-18-2019, 09:00 PM #8
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07-18-2019, 09:12 PM #9
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Source please. While I can see a slight increase in prices because a lot of the components are built in China, I can't see this a the only reason for price increases. A decline in RV sales was inevitable. Baby boomer numbers peaking and now receding, saturation of the 30 something market. The huge upswing in the RV market could not possible be sustained, there just aren't enough people capable of purchasing RV's. The next 3-5 years will see a buyers market in used RV's as people suddenly realize they are not using that expensive RV they purchased, they will shocked by the extreme loss of value.
Dallas
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07-18-2019, 09:26 PM #10
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I am literally "banking on this". Wife and I sold our condo one month ago and are now full-timing. Real estate market is (was?) white hot as of last month. I am betting that the real estate market - especially in FL - is going to go into a big nose dive as the remaining Baby Boomers either die off or move into assisted living, creating a HUGE real estate glut in FL (the following generation doesn't have the "head count" to buy up all the real estate left over from the Baby Boomers). The result is that we should see it bottom out around 2025, at which time we'll buy back in again and settle down back in SWFL.
Our 313RLTS is fully paid for, and we just ordered our 2020 Riverstone 39FK. We'll keep one in FL and the other we'll travel with.Last edited by jim1521; 07-18-2019 at 09:30 PM.
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