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Thread: Testing?
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05-12-2020, 08:56 AM #11
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You're arguing the obvious here. No amount of testing (that is realistic) will make you feel 100% safe on a plane or inside a gym. "N95 for all" is a fine goal and would undoubtedly help lower transmission if you could get enough people to wear them.
Yes, blooming in response to opening is fully expected. The question is how much is it blooming? Growth of cases at 30% per day is real bad news when you discover you've provoked it three weeks later because you'll need to slam the door completely shut again. It's much easier to handle if you detect it within 5 days and retrace a couple of your steps. No magical thinking here; it's actually a very cold Darwinian thinking.
Edit: In TX, the hospital utilization rate (beds taken vs beds available) has been hovering in the range of 10%. The Governor wants to open the economy as much as he can without exceeding a utilization rate of X%. The cases/deaths associated with the delta between 10% and X% is a cost we are willing to pay. I agree that good behavior and N95 masks could greatly reduce the costs associated with any given level of economic activity... or increase the economic activity possible at X-10% cost.Last edited by backtrack2015; 05-12-2020 at 09:08 AM.
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05-12-2020, 08:58 AM #12
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No troll or fight. You missed something....leadership and messaging. If it's not there from the top some people will discredit what comes from other places, even if they are the experts. Crimminy, look how many conspiracy theories and other untruths have sprouted in the last 3 months. In the end unfortunately you are correct, people will be people.
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05-12-2020, 08:59 AM #13
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There's a reason that we won't have more testing. It's so there will be less confirmed cases, which makes it look like the virus hasn't spread as bad as people think so it'll be safe to reopen.
If everyone got tested during a month or so the number of infected people would sky rocket. Then the public would get real nervous about going out.
It's the 'Outta sight outta mind' thing.
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05-12-2020, 09:14 AM #14
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It's much easier to handle if you detect it within 5 days and retrace a couple of your steps. No magical thinking here; it's actually a very cold Darwinian thinking.
I guess this comes down to my view on life in general, I'm much, much less confident in the government's ability to do some huge/widespread program effectively that requires the vast majority of citizens to agree with/submit to than I am my own ability to put on a mask (if I could get one) when I'm going out. Appealing to people's personal self-interest (put this on, you'll be safer/safe) is typically wildly more effective than appealing to one's sense of community or care for their common man (test yourself every day, and if you are positive, self-isolate). If I'm betting money, I'm guessing that "this will protect me" is a much, much better way to get people to actually do something to stop this. Also, masks are highly visible, no mask, no entry. Pretty easy. Testing is not, it's great for statistical analysis and I could spend days looking at that kind of data trying to tease out information (it's what I do much of my day anyway). I'm sure I'd find it interesting. But it's kind of like if we sent people into some village in Africa that had recently been hit with smallpox. Sure, you could get a lot of data from watching the spread and you could even advise them in ways the community can pull together to stop the spread. Or, you could give them some penicillin (N95) a know protective/cure for the disease. We seem to be focused on the data gathering aspect rather than the "how do we make enough of the known protective measures", that's my issue.
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05-12-2020, 09:47 AM #15
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I'm surprised that, as an information person, you confused the terms "data" and "info/information." Data, in and of itself, is not information. Information is data with meaning to the user. The blank stares are the result of the users not knowing how to interpret the data to make information out of it.
Over on the Escapees forum, a very long - and sometimes rancorous - thread has gone back and forth on the CoViD-19 topic for some time now. One of the best posts in the thread was made by and "old" (his term) retired pilot. An "old" retired physician that he used to fly into remote tribal areas for medical research called him in early January to give him a heads-up on the coming pandemic and advising him to stay put where they are isolated in the southwestern desert. Anyway, the pilot gave a pretty good treatise on the concept of situational awareness. The definition of this concept is: "... the perception of environmental elements and events with respect to time or space, the comprehension of their meaning, and the projection of their future status." He talked about how SA applies to both aviation and the current pandemic situation. The conclusion is that we are "DRIP" - data rich, information poor (another term with which you are probably familiar) and most of the population has no understanding of the concept of SA - much less the ability to apply it.
I agree that testing is not the panacea for this pandemic. Getting through it will require a multi-pronged approach and few of the models will be terribly accurate until scientists have a better understanding of this specific virus, how it mutates, and how our bodies react to to it (i.e. immunity). On an almost weekly basis, we're still discovering new ways this virus ravages the body and organ systems four months into this nightmare. It may have been confusing to some when he said it, but Donald Rumsfeld made some valid points when he said:
"... there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult."
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05-12-2020, 09:50 AM #16
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The issue with random testing is scale and getting people to participate. The issue with masks is scale of manufacturing and getting people to wear them. I'd be happy to enthusiastically support N95 manufacturing at scale as well as continued expansion and improvement in testing. It does not need to be one or the other, and both have real benefits.
I agree that when you can convince people "this will help YOU" you will get far better compliance than when you argue "this will help OTHERS."2017 F-350 CCSB 6.7L
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05-12-2020, 10:15 AM #17
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I just want to say that all of you are having a great conversation and want to personally thank you all for not getting political (I know it is difficult) and making this an interesting thread to read.
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05-12-2020, 10:15 AM #18
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The "blank stares" are a result of having information that is in no way actionable. Like my bearing example, we had data and from that data, we created information (this bearing doesn't need to be replaced as often), however, the entire exercise didn't need to happen because there was no way to make that data/information into action (because it was controlled by an uncontrollable 3rd party, IE, the regulations that said you must change this bearing at XX hours). Now, could they use this to argue that rule? Yes, they could, and they may eventually succeed, but, in my engine "big data" example (which, is actually a real project I worked on) we would have been much more effective looking at a variable actually under the companies control than one that is out of it. Can we make the bearing out of steel vs titanium? Or can we use a different oil that's cheaper? (I have no idea if these would have been permitted either, just examples). Or, we could have gone to the mechanics and asked "when you're doing the 10K hour service, what parts come out looking good and what comes out looking worn" because, at least in this case, they all already knew that changing that bearing was a waste of money/time, it came out looking like it went in.
So, relating this to COVID, yes, you could argue that some of this massive data collection effort is actionable. Open up/close down for example. I'd argue you can know that without massive amounts of testing just by looking at hospital beds, but, either perhaps massive scale testing will give you an earlier indicator, IF, and only if, you can start testing healthy people (before they get symptoms) on a regular enough basis (which, I think is a fools errand, but, I'll concede, if you can do this, as was mentioned those near the president are doing, yes, you could actually "get in front of it"; testing people every day would be effective if it somehow becomes possible). Or, you could go to the "mechanic" and ask them what they think. "Hey, Doc, how do you protect yourself from COVID"? And the answer is blindingly obvious, "A mask that can stop the virus particles, for COVID in particular, N95 or N100". We don't need this massive data collection effort, we need to look at what works for those working closely with the disease and mimic that. Testing is backwards looking (how bad is it) rather than forward looking (how do we keep it from getting worse).
I'm not saying we shouldn't do testing, we should. But if we're trying to scale anything right now, it should be for N95 masks, not test kits. Test kits let us get accurate numbers, masks let us reduce those numbers.
The issue with random testing is scale and getting people to participate. The issue with masks is scale of manufacturing and getting people to wear them. I'd be happy to enthusiastically support N95 manufacturing at scale as well as continued expansion and improvement in testing. It does not need to be one or the other, and both have real benefits.
But I do agree, we need to do both. It's just that all I hear in the news is "more people tested" and "ramping up testing" rather than "we have the armed forces cranking out masks and expect to have one to every US household in the next 2 weeks". In fact, what I do hear is "If you have or can get a N95 mask, give it to a doctor, they need it more than you" and also "N95s are only effective for doctors/front line works" (ugh, what?). The first, yes, I agree and understand why that's the case, but why are we letting that situation persist while we "ramp up testing"?
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05-12-2020, 10:16 AM #19
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I'm gonna play devils advocate here. For the most part I agree on the testing but it would help track down hot spots faster and could allow for more limited lockdowns.
Tell that to the people who are getting assaulted or even shot over being required to were masks and their not even required to wear N95's. Ever wear one?, I have one for client meetings and after about 30 min's I'm ready to rip my face off. My wife's face turns red and breaks out after just being in the grocery store. I'm sure some may be better but the ones we have are 3M. We have dropped back to KN95's which seem to be more comfortable, at least the ones we have. Are they effective,???? but then again I think the mask thing in general is not very effective. The overconfidence they can generate is just as big a problem. Seems when I'm at the store that people think the mask now takes the place of not standing on top of each other
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...-face-n1202546
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/l...loyee/2360527/
https://herald-review.com/news/local...6eb51334e.html
An N95 is not a "cure". Can it help, sure if used properly. How many people do you think can handle that? don't scratch your face, don't itch your eye, don't touch the outside of the mask while taking it on or off, etc,etc,etc. Not to mention there are plenty of other ways to catch it or we wouldn't be worried about hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes. Ramping up production for billions of additional masks anytime in the near future and getting everyone to wear one properly is about as realistic as testing the whole country. IMO
Reminds me of the guy in the grocery store early on. Mask, hat, gloves, the whole get up. walking around touching everything , grabbing food and putting it back,etc. Then his phone rings, reaches into his pocket and grabs the phone, touches the screen to answer pulls his mask down and right up to his face with the phone and the gloves still on2021 Solitude 375 RES-R
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05-12-2020, 10:35 AM #20
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Ever wear one?
For the most part I agree on the testing but it would help track down hot spots faster and could allow for more limited lockdowns.
but then again I think the mask thing in general is not very effective. The overconfidence they can generate is just as big a problem. Seems when I'm at the store that people think the mask now takes the place of not standing on top of each other
I just don't get the people standing on top of one another in the store in NORMAL times. Now? WTF is wrong with you people?! Why on earth would you want to get that close to me, I could have it too you know? And I certainly don't want to be that close to you! Guess this all comes down to what's your tolerance for "personal space". For me, I need a lot of it, I'm totally happy at 6-10ft apart from people I don't know, thank you very much.
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