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Thread: Testing?

  1. #31
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    Another one about "contact tracing" another one of my "eye rolls" when I hear that it's the solution to this problem. Might it help? Yeah, maybe, in some limited situations. Worth hiring 10's of thousands of people to work on full time? Much rather they put them to work building a factory to build N95's.

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  2. #32
    Rolling Along backtrack2015's Avatar
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    Testing and contact tracing works when you have a very small number of cases. It might help right now in rural communities, but for the urban parts of the US I'd say the contact-tracing ship sailed quite some time ago. Testing in urban environments is mostly just a murky window into the larger trends. I still think it is worth doing testing, if only to monitor the trends in the number of active cases that are sick enough to get tested. That "sick enough to test" group probably represents a more-or-less constant fraction of the overall active cases (which range from asymptomatic to fatal).

    I'm definitely on board with more N95 production. We need to be preparing for what may come here in the next six months. Making masks and educating the public on when/how to use them is likely be time and money well spent. If the experts are wrong and no second wave happens, great! I'm quite happy to throw some money at masks that may never get used. We've spent far more on other worthless pursuits.
    Last edited by backtrack2015; 06-03-2020 at 10:53 AM. Reason: clarity
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  3. #33
    Rolling Along backtrack2015's Avatar
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    We're definitely seeing an uptick in cases here in TX as well as an uptick in hospitalizations. The daily case loads have tripled since we reopened. It took a while for them to double (several weeks), but we've tripled them in a much shorter period (one week). Hopefully that's not an indicator of future events. We still have a lot of available hospital bed space, but it's hard not to be slightly apprehensive as we've seen the cases can get out-of-hand very fast.

    Edit: I was wrong before. I just looked at my plots again in more detail and it looks like the testing showed the daily cases doubled almost two weeks prior to the hospitalizations doubling. It'll be interesting to see if a 12-day delay trend holds going forward.

    Clearly the reopening of TX enabled a lot more potential exposures, and clearly local hot-spots like jails, meat-packing plants, and nursing homes contribute to the numbers, but even the governor has had to admit that a sizable fraction of the uptick reflects a lack of commitment by the community to safe behavior. I'm not sure how we convince people that their actions matter at this point.
    Last edited by backtrack2015; 06-19-2020 at 08:51 AM. Reason: made a mistake
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  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by backtrack2015 View Post
    We're definitely seeing an uptick in cases here in TX as well as an uptick in hospitalizations. The daily case loads have tripled since we reopened. It took a while for them to double (several weeks), but we've tripled them in a much shorter period (one week). Hopefully that's not an indicator of future events. We still have a lot of available hospital bed space, but it's hard not to be slightly apprehensive as we've seen the cases can get out-of-hand very fast. It's interesting that the testing didn't lead the hospitalizations much; they seem to have increased nearly simultaneously. Clearly the reopening of TX enabled a lot more potential exposures, and clearly local hot-spots like jails, meat-packing plants, and nursing homes contribute to the numbers, but even the governor has had to admit that a sizable fraction of the uptick reflects a lack of commitment by the community to safe behavior. I'm not sure how we convince people that their actions matter at this point.
    We’re seeing the same thing here in Florida. People have become more lax and yesterday we reached a high of 3200+ positive cases.

    Only 1/2 people at supermarkets are wearing masks. I think that seeing our leaders on TV without masks give people the license to follow their lead.

    I had a new stove delivered to my home yesterday. The 2 delivery people didn’t have masks. I told them that I would not let them in my home without a mask and gave them both a disposable masks to use.

    I think we are in for a nasty few months ahead.

    Until there’s a proven vaccine to eradicate the virus, we need N95 masks for everybody to protect oneself, rather than counting in cloth masks worn by others to protect us.
    Last edited by Jerryr; 06-19-2020 at 08:41 AM.
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  5. #35
    Big Traveler Wicked ace's Avatar
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    Pennsylvania has been on a downtrend and doing really well with about 80% of the state open. The 7 counties where I am are still in the yellow. Still there are ones who are in denial or just oblivious. People screaming that there is no reason to be closed. Several have filed lawsuits against the governor and to his credit he has filed several himself against persons and entities not following his executive order. He's a fighter, I like him.
    What burned me is a county supervisor that tested positive but was asymptomatic stated that the number of lives lost is worth it to open the economy back up. WTF....I say I'm not expendable, not to be culled or eliminated for the sake of herd immunity or whatever else they want to use as an excuse. It would have been nice to hear his response if Covid had been more devastating to his health.
    Last edited by Wicked ace; 06-19-2020 at 12:59 PM.
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  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wicked ace View Post
    What burned me is a county supervisor that tested positive but was asymptomatic stated that the number of lives lost is worth it to open the economy back up. WTF....I say I'm not expendable, not to be culled or eliminated for the sake of herd immunity or whatever else they want to use as an excuse. It would have been nice to hear his response if Covid had been more devastating to his health.
    I will take the other side of this.

    First, every individual has the ultimate control of if they get infected or not. Lock yourself in your house and don't let anybody in and its impossible to get infected, period. So the amount of risk taken is completely up to each individual. Second, do you advocate for shutting the country down every winter for the flu? Cause we cull or eliminate tens of thousands every single year without a second thought in the name of the economy, hundreds of thousands world wide. Obviously this is way worse and needs a harsher response but people get sacrificed everyday, its just a matter what is considered acceptable losses. The brutal reality. .

    I run a small business and I have employees that depend on the income from their job for heath insurance. They have kids and one has a new born, they lose their insurance and ultimately there home because we decimate the economy, whats worse for them? The relatively small chance they get infected (while being smart and taking precautions) or the much more likely chance that we all lose our livelihood if we go under? (which still is a distinct possibility if the economy collapses) All my employees had the choice of coming back or not, we all made the decision together. All but one couldn't wait to get back to work (They had a spouse with a government job with the benefits that come with it). The rest of us decided we preferred to work and try to save our livelihoods. I spent weeks and a small fortune tracking down masks, sanitizer, disinfectant wipes, disinfectant foggers, HEPA filter fans, etc. to keep everyone as safe as possible. I prefer to rely on us rather than our Billionaire Governor who tells everyone else they have to stay home while his wife and family travel to Florida and Wisconsin to hang out at their horse farms.

    I don't know if testing is the answer or not, at this point I guess whatever is possible should be tried. I don't think its a either/or proposition. I imagine masks by reputable sources are being produced at as fast a rate as possible, the laws of supply and demand are in full effect. If someone had the capability to make more why wouldn't they? They can almost name their price. I don't think ramping up production of a specialty product like N95 masks is that easy. The whole supply chain from raw materials to machinery to assembly has to work together. The world has been so entrenched in just in time inventory for so long a massive disruption in demand isn't easily rectified and may not be possible for years and then only if we're willing to waste millions/billions when the overage is not used 99% percent of the time, expires, and needs to be thrown out. The private sector isn't going to take that risk, it's gonna have to come from our taxes. I'm sure the appetite for that is high now with this fresh in out minds. But what about in 5/10 years when hopefully this is long gone and Joe pubic and politicians that only care about reelection start saying it only happens once every hundred years, why are we wasting all this money? And we start the whole process over again when the next virus hits. And then what if N95's are useless against that virus?

    Anyway, I sure don't have the answer. I just try to make the best decision I can at the time with the info we have. YMMV
    Last edited by JKellerJr; 06-19-2020 at 11:51 AM.
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  7. #37
    Big Traveler Wicked ace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JKellerJr View Post
    I will take the other side of this.

    First, every individual has the ultimate control of if they get infected or not. Lock yourself in your house and don't let anybody in and its impossible to get infected, period. So the amount of risk taken is completely up to each individual. Second, do you advocate for shutting the country down every winter for the flu? Cause we cull or eliminate tens of thousands every single year without a second thought in the name of the economy, hundreds of thousands world wide. Obviously this is way worse and needs a harsher response but people get sacrificed everyday, its just a matter what is considered acceptable losses. The brutal reality. .
    I do my best to protect myself however I too have the right to go beyond the dungeon you describe. For that reason I believe it's on all of us to do the best we can to protect ourselves and each other. Wearing a mask or standing a few feet apart, maybe speaking a little louder isn't difficult or a hard thing to ask. Since a voluntary compliance isn't working and you only need to read Jerryr's and Backtrack2015's posts above to see where that is going, I think it would be a good thing to make compliance mandatory. Let them scream, it's good for them. But we won't get that because the man who should be in charge has vacated, left the stage, moved on.... you get it?
    BTW.... For years now I have gotten a flu shot each winter, an ounce of prevention....Also the flu is much more treatable even in it's constantly mutating strains than Covid 19. Night and day...night and day.

    Quote Originally Posted by JKellerJr View Post
    I run a small business and I have employees that depend on the income from their job for heath insurance. They have kids and one has a new born, they lose their insurance and ultimately there home because we decimate the economy, whats worse for them? The relatively small chance they get infected (while being smart and taking precautions) or the much more likely chance that we all lose our livelihood if we go under? (which still is a distinct possibility if the economy collapses) All my employees had the choice of coming back or not, we all made the decision together. All but one couldn't wait to get back to work (They had a spouse with a government job with the benefits that come with it). The rest of us decided we preferred to work and try to save our livelihoods. I spent weeks and a small fortune tracking down masks, sanitizer, disinfectant wipes, disinfectant foggers, HEPA filter fans, etc. to keep everyone as safe as possible. I prefer to rely on us rather than our Billionaire Governor who tells everyone else they have to stay home while his wife and family travel to Florida and Wisconsin to hang out at their horse farms.
    I admire an owner or boss that cares for his employees as you say you do. I'm not advocating keeping everything shut down I know the reality, I know people have families and that they are getting stir crazy at home. I know some business models will not survive whether because of the need to stay shut or the world will change and move on. I've been there several times in my life. People need to learn to adapt because the changes are coming faster and harder than in the past.
    Also where was the PLAN? There is a provision called the War Powers Resolution that was largely neglected but could have had a big impact in getting masks and other PPE ramped up and out to us all. Yes, it's short term and meant to be.
    I see some governors trying their best to protect all of their constituents and others just roll over to the whim and pleasure of the man. The man who by the way I mentioned vacated but should in reality be leading us out of this. I don't know where you are located so I can't respond to the vacation schedule of your state's executive.

    Quote Originally Posted by JKellerJr View Post
    I don't know if testing is the answer or not, at this point I guess whatever is possible should be tried. I don't think its a either/or proposition. I imagine masks by reputable sources are being produced at as fast a rate as possible, the laws of supply and demand are in full effect. If someone had the capability to make more why wouldn't they? They can almost name their price. I don't think ramping up production of a specialty product like N95 masks is that easy. The whole supply chain from raw materials to machinery to assembly has to work together. The world has been so entrenched in just in time inventory for so long a massive disruption in demand isn't easily rectified and may not be possible for years and then only if we're willing to waste millions/billions when the overage is not used 99% percent of the time, expires, and needs to be thrown out. The private sector isn't going to take that risk, it's gonna have to come from our taxes. I'm sure the appetite for that is high now with this fresh in out minds. But what about in 5/10 years when hopefully this is long gone and Joe pubic and politicians that only care about reelection start saying it only happens once every hundred years, why are we wasting all this money? And we start the whole process over again when the next virus hits. And then what if N95's are useless against that virus?

    Anyway, I sure don't have the answer. I just try to make the best decision I can at the time with the info we have. YMMV
    Testing, tracing, PPE, distancing are all recommended by health safety experts (CDC) as PART of a comprehensive plan to lessen or mitigate exposure. There is no concerted effort to do that.
    N95 masks are neither expensive, in normal times nor difficult to make. As a supervisor I often had to be sure there was adequate PPE for my personnel and they were the standard stock issue. In fact I often ran jobs in a plant outside Philadelphia that produced the raw material for them.
    Each state and governor is left to fend for themselves. The states that felt there was no alarm, went and threw the doors open are seeing a backlash now! Acquiring what is needed became a free-for-all because a big monkey wrench was thrown into the supply chain and you saw it's affects.
    Again I see suggestions, recommendations, proposals but no leadership or example set. Instead wellllll....you know what happens in Tulsa tomorrow. I think that is part of your answer whether you want to admit it or not.
    Last edited by Wicked ace; 06-19-2020 at 12:56 PM.
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  8. #38
    Site Team WhittleBurner's Avatar
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    Read a comparison for wearing masks yesterday. Not saying it is right just that it was funny. It said expecting face masks to stop micro micro organisms is like hopping your underwear will stop the smell from your fart.
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  9. #39
    Rolling Along cookinwitdiesel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhittleBurner View Post
    Read a comparison for wearing masks yesterday. Not saying it is right just that it was funny. It said expecting face masks to stop micro micro organisms is like hopping your underwear will stop the smell from your fart.
    I think it is more about minimizing the spread/impact, much more heavy duty equipment is need to outright stop the virus from leaving someones body.
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  10. #40
    Rolling Along backtrack2015's Avatar
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    I'm definitely not wanting to shut down again. I do think we can open up 80% or more without major implications if everyone really commits to thinking and acting in a safe way. The problem is that we need to convince everyone that their individual behavior really does matter at the societal level. I find it puzzling that the message isn't incredibly clear, as the rewards for good behavior are immense for the individual, for society, and for the folks currently at the helm.
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