It's just not the same

[more tired since retired]

I dunno, there have been frost warnings in the northern tier states.

[Likes to tow]

Quote removed by traveldawg (moderator) due to personal attack on OP....

I simply do not want "part" of a route open! The route to Mt Mitchell was closed for a period of time I pull a large 5th wheel and getting on and off the Blue Ridge Parkway is a pain unless you have access to certain routes. Yes, all the visitor centers were closed and this takes a lot out of the experience. Yes we found most restaurants in towns closed. Yes I get tired of driving through a crowded drive thru window to get a meal I have to eat in a parking lot! Most museums are closed in certain areas. The overall experience is degraded. I do not want "most" things accessible, I want total freedom. No I'm not usually a whiner but we waited through years of taking care of parents who needed help and children who needed us. Now that all of that is passed I want to travel unrestricted. It's not going to happen apparently.

[Flip94ta]

I simply do not want "part" of a route open! The route to Mt Mitchell was closed for a period of time I pull a large 5th wheel and getting on and off the Blue Ridge Parkway is a pain unless you have access to certain routes. Yes, all the visitor centers were closed and this takes a lot out of the experience. Yes we found most restaurants in towns closed. Yes I get tired of driving through a crowded drive thru window to get a meal I have to eat in a parking lot! Most museums are closed in certain areas. The overall experience is degraded. I do not want "most" things accessible, I want total freedom. No I'm not usually a whiner but we waited through years of taking care of parents who needed help and children who needed us. Now that all of that is passed I want to travel unrestricted. It's not going to happen apparently.

I think you lack empathy. You want all these places open for your convenience. The hospitals in North and South Carolina are 69-77% filled depending on the county. Most those folks in those hospitals are on respirators, once you are on a respirator you have a 20% chance of living. This timing sucks for a lot of people, my in-laws 70th birthday trip to Disney with their grand kids is canceled.

Instead of being negative and sounding selfish think about the positives. You can still travel, you don’t need to pass through TSA. You have a rolling kitchen and bathroom! Only 1-2% of the population has that. We recently drove to PA and skipped the long lines and RISK of using the rest stop facilities. And it ended up being quicker, cheaper and safer than going inside. We needed reservations at places before covid, so there’s no change there, we just pack a little more water and food now and roll with it.

https://apple.news/A99hfH91nRNK1oaqYU8H4VQ

[Fsalmy]

The hospitals in North and South Carolina are 69-77% filled depending on the county. Most those folks in those hospitals are on respirators, once you are on a respirator you have a 20% chance of living.
https://apple.news/A99hfH91nRNK1oaqYU8H4VQ

Unfortunately, those stats are misleading. Let me try to offer some published stats using NC's Dept of Health reported data so you can make your own interpretations: 27% of ventilators are currently in use. There is no breakdown as to what percentage of the 27% total are COVID-19 symptomatic patients. (In other words, some of the patients may be on ventilators for reasons completely unrelated to COVID-19.) There are currently 798 hospitalized patients in NC that have tested positive for COVID-19. There are no stats indicating what percentage of the 798 are symptomatic for COVID-19. According to Kaiser Health Network, hospitalizations have increased for non-COVID-19-related illnesses. These patients are being tested for COVID-19 regardless of presenting complaint or symptoms. 47% of the ICU beds in NC are in use. Again, there is no breakdown as to how many of those 1545 in-use ICU beds are for symptomatic COVID-19 patients.

Also note that the COVID-19 antigen (PCR) tests have at best a 50% true positive rate. That means, with relatively the same accuracy, you can just flip a coin to determine if someone is COVID-19 positive. Wanna go best two out of three? A double nested PCR test is much more accurate at detecting true positives and discriminating true negatives, but the test it is rarely used.

[Wicked ace]

Unfortunately, those stats are misleading. Let me try to offer some published stats using NC's Dept of Health reported data so you can make your own interpretations: 27% of ventilators are currently in use. There is no breakdown as to what percentage of the 27% total are COVID-19 symptomatic patients. (In other words, some of the patients may be on ventilators for reasons completely unrelated to COVID-19.) There are currently 798 hospitalized patients in NC that have tested positive for COVID-19. There are no stats indicating what percentage of the 798 are symptomatic for COVID-19. According to Kaiser Health Network, hospitalizations have increased for non-COVID-19-related illnesses. These patients are being tested for COVID-19 regardless of presenting complaint or symptoms. 47% of the ICU beds in NC are in use. Again, there is no breakdown as to how many of those 1545 in-use ICU beds are for symptomatic COVID-19 patients.

Also note that the COVID-19 antigen (PCR) tests have at best a 50% true positive rate. That means, with relatively the same accuracy, you can just flip a coin to determine if someone is COVID-19 positive. Wanna go best two out of three? A double nested PCR test is much more accurate at detecting true positives and discriminating true negatives, but the test it is rarely used.

It seems to be the data is misleading because the manner and details of how it is reported are skewed to make things seem to be in a more favorable light to support a position, some states more than others. In either case because some were impatient, like the OP, stamped their feet to get what they want, cases are on the rise again.

[Flip94ta]

Unfortunately, those stats are misleading. Let me try to offer some published stats using NC's Dept of Health reported data so you can make your own interpretations: 27% of ventilators are currently in use. There is no breakdown as to what percentage of the 27% total are COVID-19 symptomatic patients. (In other words, some of the patients may be on ventilators for reasons completely unrelated to COVID-19.) There are currently 798 hospitalized patients in NC that have tested positive for COVID-19. There are no stats indicating what percentage of the 798 are symptomatic for COVID-19. According to Kaiser Health Network, hospitalizations have increased for non-COVID-19-related illnesses. These patients are being tested for COVID-19 regardless of presenting complaint or symptoms. 47% of the ICU beds in NC are in use. Again, there is no breakdown as to how many of those 1545 in-use ICU beds are for symptomatic COVID-19 patients.

Also note that the COVID-19 antigen (PCR) tests have at best a 50% true positive rate. That means, with relatively the same accuracy, you can just flip a coin to determine if someone is COVID-19 positive. Wanna go best two out of three? A double nested PCR test is much more accurate at detecting true positives and discriminating true negatives, but the test it is rarely used.

I think some of the information you are referencing comes from the site below?

I read the information as there are ~3300 icu beds, there’s about 1100 the state doesn’t have information on OR the hospitals don’t have the staffing to use those beds. Just in conversation with my couple doctor friends here in Michigan has me thinking the hospitals just can’t staff those beds, they never had the demand and therefore didn’t hire the staff. Both my friends in the past few months have had to work with covid patients rather than work in their own specialties. So of the remaining beds there are 1650 out of the ~2200 remaining beds occupied. 880 positive tests, 890 ventilators in use. The ventilator death rate seems to be improving. The death rate was 90% in China, 88% in NYC but this NPR report from May cites 25-50%.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...sually-survive

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/hospitalizations

[Fsalmy]

cases are on the rise again.

Let's try to clarify that without trying to support a position one way or another. Testing is on the rise - it was one of the criteria for re-opening states. More tests = more positive cases (see test accuracy caveat in post #25 above). Symptomatic cases and directly-related COVID-19 hospitalizations, based upon the published data, however, are NOT on the rise with the exception of a few border states. And for the border states, after delving into the details of the data, it is actually a few counties along the US/Mexico border and in the Rio Grande Valley that are accounting for increases in symptomatic cases and hospitalizations. Based upon available data, COVID-19 cases in Mexico lagged behind the US by about 30-45 days.

If one were to extrapolate from the serology testing data (antibody testing), there are some states with nearly 90% of the population having been exposed to COVID-19, at least to the extent antibodies were produced.

Model data supporting community spread indicates up to 40% of positive cases (including symptomatic and asymptomatic) are from community spreading. However, in contrast, the field data indicates community spread accounts for <1% of all cases (see WHO statements from late last week). The hypothesis as to why the field data is incongruous with the models is because the viral load shed by an asymptomatic carrier may be too low to infect a relatively healthy individual, especially children.

[Fsalmy]

I think some of the information you are referencing comes from the site below?


https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/hospitalizations

Yes. Also have to view the tab on how data is collected and reported. Some states are using cumulative totals, others are using current daily hospitalizations, others are using projected numbers, rolling averages, etc. The bottom line is that trying to get the unvarnished, non-agenda driven data is nearly impossible.

I am a pathologist doing drug/vaccine research. I evaluate clinical data all day, every day. Back in March and April, I evaluated all of the then available coronavirus tests for potential use in our labs. Due to the low sensitivity and specificity, I chose not to use a single one of them since they were literally no better than a coin toss.

The one thing I can say with certainty, is that finding raw COVID-19 data that has not been manipulated to fit an agenda is very, very difficult.

[Wicked ace]

Let's try to clarify that without trying to support a position one way or another. Testing is on the rise - it was one of the criteria for re-opening states. More tests = more positive cases (see test accuracy caveat in post #25 above). Symptomatic cases and directly-related COVID-19 hospitalizations, based upon the published data, however, are NOT on the rise with the exception of a few border states. And for the border states, after delving into the details of the data, it is actually a few counties along the US/Mexico border and in the Rio Grande Valley that are accounting for increases in symptomatic cases and hospitalizations. Based upon available data, COVID-19 cases in Mexico lagged behind the US by about 30-45 days.

If one were to extrapolate from the serology testing data (antibody testing), there are some states with nearly 90% of the population having been exposed to COVID-19, at least to the extent antibodies were produced.

Model data supporting community spread indicates up to 40% of positive cases (including symptomatic and asymptomatic) are from community spreading. However, in contrast, the field data indicates community spread accounts for <1% of all cases (see WHO statements from late last week). The hypothesis as to why the field data is incongruous with the models is because the viral load shed by an asymptomatic carrier may be too low to infect a relatively healthy individual, especially children.

While we are extrapolating, that pendulum swings both ways, lets consider the unknown positives and Covid related deaths because testing was either not available, not yet refined and the sorry lack of response to get some sort of infrastructure in place. Consider the asymptomatic cases walking around that no one knows about. Lets also consider the amount of people out in public with blatant disregard for the virus and their fellow man. Your storywash in fact it's largely a cover up excuse.
There is too much that is unknown to be neatly put in a box and say there it is.

[Wicked ace]

Yes. Also have to view the tab on how data is collected and reported. Some states are using cumulative totals, others are using current daily hospitalizations, others are using projected numbers, rolling averages, etc. The bottom line is that trying to get the unvarnished, non-agenda driven data is nearly impossible.

I am a pathologist doing drug/vaccine research. I evaluate clinical data all day, every day. Back in March and April, I evaluated all of the then available coronavirus tests for potential use in our labs. Due to the low sensitivity and specificity, I chose not to use a single one of them since they were literally no better than a coin toss.

The one thing I can say with certainty, is that finding raw COVID-19 data that has not been manipulated to fit an agenda is very, very difficult.

I guess we hit on a common theme after all.