Tesla CyberTruck: How Battery Day Totally Changed What We Know About Electric Pickups

[jkwilson]

The half shaft issue is an easy fix, I built them for General Motors for years. They have half shaft for heavy trucks that run for hundreds of thousands of miles. The other stuff, not so much! At some point the investors will get tired of putting money down a dry hole! Tesla has been in business for almost 20 years and has not come close to making a profit! They have lost Billions!

Tesla has had 4 consecutive profitable quarters.

[PTParker]

As far as Electrifying the Semi and other Big work trucks goes, it is going to happen, sooner than most people think. The economics of running an Electric Fleet are just too great for it to not happen. For example: Walmart Canada just tripled their order for Tesla's Semi, while Walmart did say that they are doing this for the environment; you can bet your last dollar that they are doing this for the economics first.

While we have discussed how the Long-Haul Semis would be recharged, the truth is that over 80% of the Semis on the road are Short-Haul/Day Cabs that return to the Depot/Yard every night. A 300 mile range Semi will service this market extremely well (this also includes all the Box Trucks). Trucks that serve this market can recharge in Depots/Yards overnight where enhanced Grid connections will not be required.

The Long-Haul Electric Semi market will also become a reality, however this market will be slower to convert mainly due to the recharging issues we have discussed in the posts above. I would expect a nation wide carrier that has Depots scattered along a major highway would convert their fleet first because they can control their Trucks and Drivers easier (think; UPS, FedEx, Estes Freight, etc.).

I believe the OEM Truck manufacturers will also produce Hybrid versions of their Heavy Duty Pickups, unfortunately, I don't believe they will produce Diesel versions because of the high cost of Diesel Engines and the associated Pollution Controls (A gas engine will run a generator quite efficiently and at a lower cost).

The problem I see with the Heavy Duty Hybrid Pickup Trucks that might be produced by the "Big Three" (OEM) Auto Makers is that they will be "Mild" Hybrids and they will not have enough "All Electric" range.

There are basically two types of Hybrid Drivetrains, the "Mild" Hybrid where the Electric motor assists the ICE Engine in propelling the vehicle. This is the type of Hybrid System that is on the Toyota Pris, this type of system is great at increasing gas mileage, especially in city driving, because the Electric Motor is used to assist the vehicle when taking off from a stop (or at low speeds). The other type of Hybrid System is the "Series" Hybrid, this is where the Vehicle is always propelled by the Electric Motor and the ICE Engine only runs a Generator capable of generating enough Electricity to fully power the vehicle AFTER the batteries have discharged. This type of system can be the most efficient system because you can design the ICE Engine to operate at it's optimal RPMs and Power Curve, this is the Hybrid System that is used in the Chevy Volt.

The other problem I think the Big Three Heavy Duty Pickups will have will be not enough "All Electric" range. I suspect that the Big Three will produce Heavy Duty Pickups with only 100 miles of All Electric Range. While 100 Miles may be acceptable for an "around town" pickup, that 100 miles will disappear really fast once you begin towing with the pickup.

There is also another problem with the Hybrid Heavy Duty Pickups; and that is the issue of the Environment, Hybrids, especially Hybrids with short All Electric range, will not benefit the Environment as much, nor as quickly as a Full Battery Electric Pickup. Face it, these pickups have long lifespans and most of the Hybrid pickups will still be on the road 10 - 15 years after they are initially sold, that just means we are "kicking the can down the road" for our Grandchildren and Great-Grandchildren to deal with the Pollution and Climate Change issue that we have created.

For those who might not believe in Climate Change, You can't argue with the fact that CO2 has risen to over 412 PPM and that the main cause is burning stuff we probably shouldn't be burning. We now have technology available to us to stop burning that stuff. The sooner we stop burning this bad stuff, the better for our Children, Grandchildren, and their Grandchildren.

Full Electric propulsion for our entire Transportation Sector is Vital and we need to make this happen as soon as possible (for the betterment of mankind).

Better get ready for many more nuclear plants! That is the only way you will produce that much power!

[PTParker]

Tesla has had 4 consecutive profitable quarters.

Forbes wrote in Jan. of 2020 that Tesla has yet to make a Profit! CNN did say Tesla was now profitable, but I don't believe anything from CNN! If you will read from many sources, more important from the financial writings, Tesla has only had 4 profitable quarters EVER, and never made an annual profit! You can make a profit in a quarter by just billing practices and spending practices, but they are still bleeding millions a year! In fact Elan said in 2019 that they were single digits away from bankruptcy! One article I read even claimed Tesla was making 20 percent profit! More than GM, Ford, and Toyota! I would not invest! To many hurdles to overcome!

[jkwilson]

Forbes wrote in Jan. of 2020 that Tesla has yet to make a Profit! CNN did say Tesla was now profitable, but I don't believe anything from CNN! If you will read from many sources, more important from the financial writings, Tesla has only had 4 profitable quarters EVER, and never made an annual profit! You can make a profit in a quarter by just billing practices and spending practices, but they are still bleeding millions a year! In fact Elan said in 2019 that they were single digits away from bankruptcy! One article I read even claimed Tesla was making 20 percent profit! More than GM, Ford, and Toyota! I would not invest! To many hurdles to overcome!

You just have to look at SEC filings to see they are profitable. Why rely on rumors when the numbers are available publicly? It is a crime to publish false information with the SEC.

[PTParker]

Tesla has had 4 consecutive profitable quarters.

I stand corrected, from my last post, I did some more reading and Tesla did turn a profit in the last 4 quarters, some of the articles were not clear! But, Tesla still has over 13 billion in debt and I still say they are a long way from being successful! Just to many hurdles! Just like self driving cars, just to many hurdles! They will probably keep pushing but we are a long way from having safe electric cars or safe self driving cars.

[SolarPoweredRV]

Gas does have plenty of energy, but has proven rather safe over the years because they shield it and seldom have a problem unless in a bad crash. Electricity has proven dangerous in a Tesla! Many, Many fires with the chance of explosion!

Because Gas and Diesel fires are so common, you seldom see headlines about these cars catching fire. Unfortunately for Tesla, Electric cars are newsworthy and you have seen several headlines showing Teslas catching fire. In all the Tesla fires where the batteries caught on fire there were no injuries and the occupants had enough advance warning to safely escape the vehicle. In the cases where the Teslas caught fire due to an accident and people died, the severe accident was the cause of the fire and the results would have probably been the same in a Gas or Diesel powered vehicle.

Here are the facts from FEMA's Website:

Each year, from 2014 to 2016, an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss. 1 These highway vehicle fires accounted for 13 percent of fires responded to by fire departments across the nation

If you compare the above numbers with the total number of Tesla fires you have ever heard about, you will see that EVs are much safer than Fossil Fueled vehicles from a fire standpoint.

Additionally, Teslas are the safest Vehicles on the road, they have consistently outscored all other vehicles in both the NHTSA and IIHS crash tests.

[TheLexx]

The half shaft issue is an easy fix, I built them for General Motors for years. They have half shaft for heavy trucks that run for hundreds of thousands of miles. The other stuff, not so much! At some point the investors will get tired of putting money down a dry hole! Tesla has been in business for almost 20 years and has not come close to making a profit! They have lost Billions!

You would think it's an easy fix to redesign this part. But reading the Tesla forums, owners expect this to be an ongoing issue because the replacement part fails again within a few thousand miles. Just yesterday there was a news article about a Tesla Model Y owner whose roof simply blew off while he was driving down the road. If this had happened to any other manufacturer, the PR damage would be huge. Yet Tesla owners commented that this is about par for the course and it seems to be expected.