I am less than a week from picking up my first TT, a 2021 Transcend 247bh. I am a cautious person and have done the math multiple times but I would like some of the experts on here to double check if it isn't too much trouble. I wont know exact numbers until I pick up the trailer, get it loaded and get it on a scale but I am trying to do all measurements with extremes here rather than using the GD or Ford advertised numbers. I know people pull these things with far less number crunching all the time but I want to make sure we are safe. Thoughts are appreciated.

Here are my stats:

Tow Vehicle:
2020 F-150 5.0 Supercrew 6.5 bed
Curb Weight: 5053
Payload: 1997
GCWR: 14,400
GVWR: 7050
Trailer Weight Rating: 9000
Loaded truck weight: ~720lbs (me, wife, 3 small kids and the E2 hitch with room to grow as the kids get bigger)

Trailer:
Transcend 247bh
UVW: 5676 (from sticker on our unit)
GVWR: 6995
Max Cargo (from sticker): 1279

So if I do the math...

GCWR - Curbweight (loaded) = 14,400 - 5773 = 8627 (max trailer weight is 6995 so should be well within the safety margins?)
Fully loaded trailer x 15% max hitch weight = 6995 x .15 = 1049lbs max tongue weight
720lbs hitch and people + 1049 max tongue weight = 1769 < 1997 max payload (228lbs to spare?)

I doubt I will have a fully loaded trailer when I am towing but I want to use the max number to make sure I can take everything the trailer can throw at it. Is 15% tongue weight a solid number or is being in the middle (13%) safer? Do I need to weigh this thing every time I go anywhere? I need a beer...