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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by SolarPoweredRV View Post
    With a deregulated system like you describe, Solar and Wind can win because of their lower cost. Currently, Solar and Wind, along with battery storage, are the lowest cost method to generate Electricity in the US. Unfortunately, Illinois ranks 17th in installed Solar capacity, however, it ranks 5th in Wind capacity. As more and more low cost renewables (and energy storage) are installed in Illinois your Electricity prices should begin to moderate.
    That's true in the short run and only if you look at the variable cost of electricity production. In the long run it proves to be just as costly (maybe even more costly) as (1) transmission infrastructure is added to move power from rural areas (where the power is generated) to urban areas (where most of the power is consumed), and (2) as dispatchable thermal sources are retired and incentives are necessary to keep them around to backstop renewable intermittency.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by clange View Post
    That's true in the short run and only if you look at the variable cost of electricity production. In the long run it proves to be just as costly (maybe even more costly) as (1) transmission infrastructure is added to move power from rural areas (where the power is generated) to urban areas (where most of the power is consumed), and (2) as dispatchable thermal sources are retired and incentives are necessary to keep them around to backstop renewable intermittency.
    The transmission costs are going to be there regardless of the source of the Electricity, however, I do concede that Solar and Wind might increase the transmission costs slightly because of their remoteness.

    In your state, 73% of electricity generation is from Nuclear and Coal, two of the most expensive ways to produce Electricity. You do have a very good amount of Wind generation, however, Wind generation is "generally" better at night, whereas, most of the usage is during the daytime (especially in Summer because of the A/C load). If your state can increase the amount of Solar available to the Grid, your prices should drop. By-the-way, your energy mix is perfect for charging EVs, because, both Nuclear and Coal are considered "Baseline" generating sources and they need to operate around the clock, consequently, they generate a lot of excess/wasted electrons during the overnight periods. This is a PERFECT Scenario for reduced Time of Use rates for overnight EV charging.
    David and Peggy
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    Running with 20k Reese Goosebox (Love It) and Ford Factory "Puck" system.
    Stopping with 8,000 lb Disc Brakes and Titan Hydraulic over Electric Brakes system.
    Powering all this fun with 1200 Watts of Solar, two Tesla, Model S, battery modules, 24 volt Victron Inverter.
    2018 Solitude 310 GK

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by SolarPoweredRV View Post
    Lithium battery prices have fallen precipitously over the past decade, they were over $1,000 per Kwh and now they are below $100 per Kwh. Additionally, the introduction of Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries into the Grid Storage market have dropped prices even further. Utilities are buying and installing Grid Scale batteries as fast as they can be made, Tesla has a two year backlog on their Mega Packs.

    Access to Lithium is not an issue because Lithium is one of the most abundant elements on Earth. There is however, a shortage of Lithium processing into "Battery Grade" Lithium. Fortunately, Tesla and others are building Lithium processing facilities to address that issue.
    I hope you're right. I recently got a quote for solar (which was reasonable) and solar w/batteries (which was laughably high), so I don't think we're there yet. If they fall another 90% (using your numbers from the past decade), we'll be there. If that's occurring every decade (again, your numbers), I can't wait because that would allow me to generate and store my own electric quite a bit cheaper than the utility can/will deliver it to me. It also means that many of the utilities will be out of business (or they will have to drop their price per KW drastically) in the next decade. Why even hook up to the grid at that point, right?
    2020 Grand Design 351M (sold)
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  4. #84
    Site Sponsor SolarPoweredRV's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Overtaxed View Post
    I hope you're right. I recently got a quote for solar (which was reasonable) and solar w/batteries (which was laughably high), so I don't think we're there yet. If they fall another 90% (using your numbers from the past decade), we'll be there. If that's occurring every decade (again, your numbers), I can't wait because that would allow me to generate and store my own electric quite a bit cheaper than the utility can/will deliver it to me. It also means that many of the utilities will be out of business (or they will have to drop their price per KW drastically) in the next decade. Why even hook up to the grid at that point, right?
    I do have to agree that our current utility structure seems untenable once everyone has the ability to generate and store their own energy. I am not sure how or why you would want, or need, to be connected to the grid if your home is self sufficient.

    Solar panels may not come down in price much from their current levels, however, their efficiency will increase every year, effectively reducing their price.
    David and Peggy
    2019 Ford F350 Lariat, 6.7L Diesel, Dually, Long Bed
    Running with 20k Reese Goosebox (Love It) and Ford Factory "Puck" system.
    Stopping with 8,000 lb Disc Brakes and Titan Hydraulic over Electric Brakes system.
    Powering all this fun with 1200 Watts of Solar, two Tesla, Model S, battery modules, 24 volt Victron Inverter.
    2018 Solitude 310 GK

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by SolarPoweredRV View Post
    I do have to agree that our current utility structure seems untenable once everyone has the ability to generate and store their own energy. I am not sure how or why you would want, or need, to be connected to the grid if your home is self sufficient.

    Solar panels may not come down in price much from their current levels, however, their efficiency will increase every year, effectively reducing their price.
    Sadly, what will likely happen is that the power companies will focus on "captive" audiences. Those who live in cities, for example, can't typically put up panels and batteries. Also, those without the means to buy a solar/battery setup (cannot afford the capital expense). They will basically turn their business into "those who can't do any better". Similar to how DSL Internet persists today, nobody who has options would EVER choose DSL, but, many don't have any options, it's the only thing offered.
    2020 Grand Design 351M (sold)
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  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Overtaxed View Post
    Interesting analysis, I agree with most of it. This last point, I'm looking at solar for my house right now and, honestly, while I may do it, the "business model" makes no sense to the power company at all. With solar on my roof, I'm selling power back to the grid at my "buy" rate. That values all the electrical infrastructure at 0 dollars and makes the (incorrect) assumption that 100% of the price I pay for electric is fuel (which would be offset, 1-1, when I generate power from my array). The reality, my area is powered by nuclear, <10% of the cost of my electric is fuel, the rest is infrastructure. The reality is, stuff like net metering is a (gross) economic distortion that cannot persist, I might do it, and, in small amounts, the power company can absorb it, but, as more and more people get solar, the power company will have to move away from net metering to another business model. I suspect, medium term, that what will happen is a high "grid interconnect fee" and/or vastly lower (or no) payments for power sold back to the grid. The math/economics just don't work the way it's currently setup.
    What net metering essentially does is allow the solar owner to store their excess energy in the electric grid without paying for the storage infrastructure. As you say this is not sustainable.

    In my state net metering will be changing between now and 2027 on how it operates. The first is solar customers depending up their utility will pay a minimum bill of $22 or $28 per month. There is also a non-bypassable monthly charge based on the number of kW installed. This is expected to decrease the 20 year savings by about 20%. The final stage is all customers will be moved from net metering to Time of Use or Critical Peak Pricing meaning the price paid for excess or supplemental electricity will vary at the wholesale rate paid by the utility. Effectively they will treat home owners as they do other power suppliers. They are also adding a grid access fee for systems over 15K kW which is unlikely to hit the average home owner but will definitely hit businesses. This all came about because Duke Energy was not being compensated for the use of their grid to store electricity for the customer's later use.

    I'm not well versed enough in home solar to say if this is an equitable solution for all parties or not. On the surface most of it makes sense but usually when Duke Energy is involved things tend to be in their favor not that of their customers.
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  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by retired_engineer View Post
    What net metering essentially does is allow the solar owner to store their excess energy in the electric grid without paying for the storage infrastructure. As you say this is not sustainable.

    In my state net metering will be changing between now and 2027 on how it operates. The first is solar customers depending up their utility will pay a minimum bill of $22 or $28 per month. There is also a non-bypassable monthly charge based on the number of kW installed. This is expected to decrease the 20 year savings by about 20%. The final stage is all customers will be moved from net metering to Time of Use or Critical Peak Pricing meaning the price paid for excess or supplemental electricity will vary at the wholesale rate paid by the utility. Effectively they will treat home owners as they do other power suppliers. They are also adding a grid access fee for systems over 15K kW which is unlikely to hit the average home owner but will definitely hit businesses. This all came about because Duke Energy was not being compensated for the use of their grid to store electricity for the customer's later use.

    I'm not well versed enough in home solar to say if this is an equitable solution for all parties or not. On the surface most of it makes sense but usually when Duke Energy is involved things tend to be in their favor not that of their customers.
    The new system is DEFINITELY in Duke's favor!!!!
    David and Peggy
    2019 Ford F350 Lariat, 6.7L Diesel, Dually, Long Bed
    Running with 20k Reese Goosebox (Love It) and Ford Factory "Puck" system.
    Stopping with 8,000 lb Disc Brakes and Titan Hydraulic over Electric Brakes system.
    Powering all this fun with 1200 Watts of Solar, two Tesla, Model S, battery modules, 24 volt Victron Inverter.
    2018 Solitude 310 GK

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