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Thread: California Diesel Truck Ban
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05-29-2023, 07:39 AM #71
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Interesting analysis, I agree with most of it. This last point, I'm looking at solar for my house right now and, honestly, while I may do it, the "business model" makes no sense to the power company at all. With solar on my roof, I'm selling power back to the grid at my "buy" rate. That values all the electrical infrastructure at 0 dollars and makes the (incorrect) assumption that 100% of the price I pay for electric is fuel (which would be offset, 1-1, when I generate power from my array). The reality, my area is powered by nuclear, <10% of the cost of my electric is fuel, the rest is infrastructure. The reality is, stuff like net metering is a (gross) economic distortion that cannot persist, I might do it, and, in small amounts, the power company can absorb it, but, as more and more people get solar, the power company will have to move away from net metering to another business model. I suspect, medium term, that what will happen is a high "grid interconnect fee" and/or vastly lower (or no) payments for power sold back to the grid. The math/economics just don't work the way it's currently setup.
Drilling companies are not going to continue to drill for crude if they cant get the money for it
The other thing, there are a vast array of uses for a barrel of oil outside of gasoline. Diesel fuel, bunker fuel (ships), tar (pavement), feedstock for all kinds of chemical processes.. I read once that every barrel of oil feeds into 100's of different industries for different purposes, gasoline is by far the biggest, but the other uses for oil aren't going to go anywhere. Gasoline may become a "waste product" from refining, sold at a very low price or even just flared off if they can't find any buyer for it.2020 Grand Design 351M (sold)
2022 Luxe 44FB
2019 F450 KR w/Hensley BD5F
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05-29-2023, 08:18 AM #72
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05-29-2023, 08:34 AM #73
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True, Oil is a feedstock for hundreds of chemicals we use every day. However, there is a good amount of research going on that is looking at alternative sources for feedstocks to the chemical industry.
The truth is that Diesel and Gasoline are actually by-products of oil processing for other chemicals. I feel there is a chance that we may someday have too much liquid fuel and create a disposal problem for our selves if we are not careful. Of course, history tells us we won't see far enough ahead into the future to spot the problem and deal with the problem, so there's that.
Here is an image that shows exactly how big a problem we might be facing...
David and Peggy
2019 Ford F350 Lariat, 6.7L Diesel, Dually, Long Bed
Running with 20k Reese Goosebox (Love It) and Ford Factory "Puck" system.
Stopping with 8,000 lb Disc Brakes and Titan Hydraulic over Electric Brakes system.
Powering all this fun with 1200 Watts of Solar, two Tesla, Model S, battery modules, 24 volt Victron Inverter.
2018 Solitude 310 GK
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05-29-2023, 09:31 AM #74
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The generation side was deregulated in Illinois in the late ‘90s, when the vertically integrated utilities were forced to divest of their generation assets. The generation in Illinois has been “merchant” generation since then. The Illinois Power Agency (a governmental entity) conducts an auction among the merchant generators that sets the power prices that the distribution utilities pass thru to their customers (with no markup).
Last year was brutal. Power prices skyrocketed at the auction in May due to lack of supply for the summer. This year is much lower, but still a lot higher than 2021. Any state that deregulated the generation will likely be in a similar boat. All coal generation is facing a sunset date of 2045 in Illinois, so it’s not hard to imagine how those owners will respond when faced with major maintenance. Will they even be able to keep a workforce to keep a plant running?
We can expect a lot of turmoil until viable, utility-scale storage for the renewables is available and installed. And unfortunately, this transition is going to be brutally harsh for those that can least afford it, as was the case last year in Illinois. This is just the generation side. The distribution upgrades required when penetration of EVs gets beyond the “novelty” stage is a whole other matter. Time of day rates won’t fix this. All of it can be done, but the cost will be high.Larry and JoAnna
23 Chevy 3500HD CCLB DRW High Country 6.6L Diesel, 22 Solitude 310GK-R, Hensley BD5
MORRyde 8k IS, QD8000 Genny, Dual 5kVA Quattros
Dual SOK 48V 100ah Server Rack Batts (10kWHr)
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05-29-2023, 09:43 AM #75
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You are exactly correct. Net metering is a construct to incent solar installs. I think (but don’t quote me here) there is a sunset date on it of Dec 31, 2024 in Illinois. It’s one of many ways that policymakers are “putting the finger on the scale” to achieve an outcome.
Larry and JoAnna
23 Chevy 3500HD CCLB DRW High Country 6.6L Diesel, 22 Solitude 310GK-R, Hensley BD5
MORRyde 8k IS, QD8000 Genny, Dual 5kVA Quattros
Dual SOK 48V 100ah Server Rack Batts (10kWHr)
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05-29-2023, 09:48 AM #76
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We can expect a lot of turmoil until viable, utility-scale storage for the renewables is available and installed.
We will eventually solve this problem, but the pace of change in battery capacity per lb or capacity per dollar has been rather linear, we're not seeing doublings happening every 18 months (like we do with CPUs/ICs), more like every 10-20 years. We probably need another 2-3 doublings (same mass, 2-4X the density, same cost) before battery storage really starts to make sense at scale.2020 Grand Design 351M (sold)
2022 Luxe 44FB
2019 F450 KR w/Hensley BD5F
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05-29-2023, 09:57 AM #77
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Larry and JoAnna
23 Chevy 3500HD CCLB DRW High Country 6.6L Diesel, 22 Solitude 310GK-R, Hensley BD5
MORRyde 8k IS, QD8000 Genny, Dual 5kVA Quattros
Dual SOK 48V 100ah Server Rack Batts (10kWHr)
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05-29-2023, 10:09 AM #78
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Certainly hybrid is the right answer for the kind of vehicles most of us use to tow (big pickups/dullies/etc). While Tesla has shown "it can be done" with the semi, it's more a science experiment than a practical use for an RV'er (it does have shipping applications).
Realistically, to replace my/your F450/3500, we need a pickup truck with about 1000KWh of power on board. That would get around a 500 mile range and cover "almost all" use cases for typical RVing. Problem is, a 1000KW battery is both wildly expensive, very heavy, and would take north of 100 hours to charge at an RV park (or at home). Is it "doable"? Yes, it is. Is it practical for most of us? Not even a little bit.
The right answer for most of us is a hybrid. IMHO, it should be a diesel/electric drivetrain (no coupling of the engine to the wheels, just engine to generator to batteries to motors) just like large construction equipment uses. Modest sized battery (100KW or so) for around town stuff and to absorb the peak loads, regen braking, and probably around a 3L diesel engine coupled to a 100KW generator (so roughly 200HP). Having a "full power" connector on the vehicle would allow it to function as a generator for your house and/or battery storage. And, of course, it would also make off grid camping really easy/nice, just plug in the truck and use the battery, if the battery gets low, the engine kicks on to charge).
It makes enough sense and is good/great in enough real world situations that MAYBE we'll get these types of trucks someday. Maybe not, might just hold out for batteries to get good enough, but that's going to be a long time, many of us won't be RVing anymore when that finally happens.2020 Grand Design 351M (sold)
2022 Luxe 44FB
2019 F450 KR w/Hensley BD5F
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05-29-2023, 11:48 AM #79
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With a deregulated system like you describe, Solar and Wind can win because of their lower cost. Currently, Solar and Wind, along with battery storage, are the lowest cost method to generate Electricity in the US. Unfortunately, Illinois ranks 17th in installed Solar capacity, however, it ranks 5th in Wind capacity. As more and more low cost renewables (and energy storage) are installed in Illinois your Electricity prices should begin to moderate.
David and Peggy
2019 Ford F350 Lariat, 6.7L Diesel, Dually, Long Bed
Running with 20k Reese Goosebox (Love It) and Ford Factory "Puck" system.
Stopping with 8,000 lb Disc Brakes and Titan Hydraulic over Electric Brakes system.
Powering all this fun with 1200 Watts of Solar, two Tesla, Model S, battery modules, 24 volt Victron Inverter.
2018 Solitude 310 GK
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05-29-2023, 12:05 PM #80
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Lithium battery prices have fallen precipitously over the past decade, they were over $1,000 per Kwh and now they are below $100 per Kwh. Additionally, the introduction of Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries into the Grid Storage market have dropped prices even further. Utilities are buying and installing Grid Scale batteries as fast as they can be made, Tesla has a two year backlog on their Mega Packs.
Access to Lithium is not an issue because Lithium is one of the most abundant elements on Earth. There is however, a shortage of Lithium processing into "Battery Grade" Lithium. Fortunately, Tesla and others are building Lithium processing facilities to address that issue.David and Peggy
2019 Ford F350 Lariat, 6.7L Diesel, Dually, Long Bed
Running with 20k Reese Goosebox (Love It) and Ford Factory "Puck" system.
Stopping with 8,000 lb Disc Brakes and Titan Hydraulic over Electric Brakes system.
Powering all this fun with 1200 Watts of Solar, two Tesla, Model S, battery modules, 24 volt Victron Inverter.
2018 Solitude 310 GK
Charging Lithium Batteries From...
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