Will this be the new normal?

**Overtaxed** · 04-06-2020, 07:33 AM

Originally Posted by backtrack2015

You're one of the last folks stubbornly clinging to this comparison with the flu. Please see the fatality rate for COVID-19 in the US. Then adjust that rate to reflect a healthcare system that is totally overwhelmed because we just "let it go." Then extend that through a population of 328 million people. This is a much bigger deal than the typical seasonal flu. The adjustments in tone and policy from our President from January to mid-March were paced by his ability to comprehend and accept what we were dealing with, not by any fundamental changes in our understanding of the virus or COVID-19.

I agree with some of this. It's not the flu. It seems to be somewhat (to significantly) more dangerous than the standard flu. However, that said, part of the problem here is we're only testing sick/really sick people so we're getting a skewed result for the level of dangerous (IMHO). In countries with really wide scale testing, the fatality rate is much, much lower than the 2% (or whatever) number we're seeing here is. Because at least some (IMHO, a lot) of the people who get this either have mild/moderate symptoms (basically, think "minor cold to flu level") or, some people, apparently, have no symptoms at all. By only testing those who are very sick, we're getting a statistical issue in the data; shoot, if you only sample people who are 70+ in the hospital (for any reason) the death rate for people 70+ might be 30%. But if you sample all people between 70-80, the death rate is FAR lower than that. You can't extrapolate "If you're 70 years old, you have a 30% chance of dying this year". And that's what we're doing right now, we're only sampling the really sick people, and from that, drawing statistical conclusions that might not be true (if, as many are supposing, not everyone with COVID get's "very sick").

All that said, it's not the flu. I think it's clear that this is a threat, and that we do need to be mindful of this. Social distance, as another poster said, for me, is kind of breath of fresh air. I don't like people in my "personal space". That part of the "new normal" is kind of nice for me. And I'm not having to fly to every corner of the world to take meetings that could be (and now are) held just as well on a conference call or WebEx. That's also a nice change for me. But, as an introvert, this whole thing kind of plays right into the "introvert lifestyle", keep to yourself, minimize large group interactions, a small number of close friends. Kind of sounds like "Monday" to me, not a national crisis.

**Jerryr** · 04-06-2020, 07:41 AM

Originally Posted by The Bone

If they find a cure for this things will go back to normal very quickly. It's funny we don't shut down the economy just because of the flu, it kills lots of people yet we don't seem to worry much about that. I get why we did this because we don't know anything about this disease . New information comes out every day so the President has to adjust his thoughts. i hope the new drug they are putting there faith into works. Then we need to find something to keep us from getting it. Not sure which disease we should be more afraid of flue or Corvid 19? .

No disrespect intended but This IS NOT the flu. We didn’t do this because we don’t know anything about this disease. We did it because it’s exceeding the capability of the medical infrastructure WORLDWIDE!

I survived Viet Nam and multiple cat 4 & 5 Hurricanes but this is different. I personally know several people who caught and so far one who didn’t survive. Each one who caught it said it’s 10x worse than any flu.

For now we all need to stay away from others to slow the spread so we don’t overrun the hospitals. I fear until we reach herd immunity we will be fighting this for much longer than we expect. The problem is that many of the most vulnerable will suffer or not survive.

First step is we need to test EVERYBODY and isolate those who are infected.

Please Stay safe.

**backtrack2015** · 04-06-2020, 07:43 AM

@Overtaxed - I totally agree that the statistics are a mess because of the sampling and that the actual fatality rate is lower than it appears. I do hope it is much lower than it appears. Testing testing testing. Our current lockdown and our eventual release are both related-to/dependent-on testing.

**BeenGone** · 04-06-2020, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by The Bone

If they find a cure for this things will go back to normal very quickly. It's funny we don't shut down the economy just because of the flu, it kills lots of people yet we don't seem to worry much about that. I get why we did this because we don't know anything about this disease . New information comes out every day so the President has to adjust his thoughts. i hope the new drug they are putting there faith into works. Then we need to find something to keep us from getting it. Not sure which disease we should be more afraid of flue or Corvid 19? The media is scaring the crap out of people so recovery will be slow. Weather is getting nice and that will bring more people out into the streets. Some folks already don't care so they closed parks and beaches here in Ca.

The issue is that this comes in ADDITION to the flu. Our health care system is geared and optimized for the existing ailments, hospitals know what to expect. COVID-19 has a higher death rate than the flu, and without counter-measure, the hospitals cannot cope with a doubled influx. There are no more beds, there are no more respirators.

So stop comparing it to the flu. It is not the flu, and it comes on top of the already existing illnesses that require hospitalization.

**goducks14** · 04-06-2020, 10:38 AM

While the death rate is high, it's the hospitalization rates that're what's causing the problems.
2% for the Flu
19% for the C-19
IMO if the rate was the same as the Flu then tis would not even be an issue.

**avidcamper** · 04-06-2020, 09:47 PM

I do agree that this pandemic will change the way the world operates. Although I need human interaction I fear there will be more "distance" in the future. You could see it propagating among our young who I feel are losing social skills by using electronics to communicate. The fallout from this will be more closing of brick and mortar stores. Heck I have seen many eateries closed that will not reopen. People are risking fines by still congregating because that is what we are conditioned to do. I find myself calling family, friends and co-workers just to keep up and pass time. I do have a service job that requires me to go work on medical equipment in the "danger zones" I pray that the machine I need to work on has been pulled from the patient contact area and disinfected. Usually I cherish the time to converse with operators while doing my job. Now I just hope to be isolated. This will not be over in 15,30 or even 45 days. Some areas may experience a decline but that means the virus will move to some other areas. Lack of testing has falsely given us some comfort when there may be infected people right in front of you at the local store. Scary times people. I do hope that RV sites around the country remain open so we have a way to allow us to step away from the craziness for awhile. All state parks in NY and PA are closed. This will affect my camping schedule. So I hope everyone stays safe, avoids the virus and can still enjoy a normal camping season. And one last thought, I hope this does bring jobs back to the ole USA as our president is trying to encourage. More people will be working from home and in front of a screen. Technology is good when it works. Thanks for letting me add my rant. Sorry for being all over the board but I had to speak to what i read in prior posts.

**The Bone** · 04-07-2020, 06:27 AM

No where in my post did I say it was the flu. i am comparing getting the flu and how many people get the flu and die. is the flu the same nope but it seems to me that the flu is very contagious and many people die from it yet we don't shut down the country. I am doing my part not to get into someones safe space. I now wear a mask at the grocery store. I don't visit anyone. I do however take this virus very seriously and it's odd how it is effecting some people and not others. Even the flu will kill you more easily if you have lung problems. Throwing numbers out there makes no difference compared to the population. Testing people who aren't sick makes no sense to me. to me. Even the amount of people getting this and dying is small which is good by any measure and I hope it stays that way. if you are sick than by all means get the test. Don't waste it on someone that isn't sick.

**DaveMatthewsBand** · 04-07-2020, 03:34 PM

Let this soak in... you get over the flu.
There’s no lingering effects.

A lot of people that get the Covid virus have permanent damage to their bodies, particularly their lungs.

If you absolutely have to use comparisons, Compare it it car accidents instead, the results are more similar.

**Richter** · 04-07-2020, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by The Bone

Testing people who aren't sick makes no sense to me. to me. If you are sick than by all means get the test. Don't waste it on someone that isn't sick.

My understanding is that you can have the virus, feel fine for a couple of weeks, then the symptoms come on. During that time, you may have infected anyone that you have come into contact with. It may make sense to test those who “are not sick” or don’t think that they are. I’m not a doctor, and not an expert on the issue, just my opinion on things.

**DaveMatthewsBand** · 04-07-2020, 07:23 PM

Originally Posted by Richter

My understanding is that you can have the virus, feel fine for a couple of weeks, then the symptoms come on. During that time, you may have infected anyone that you have come into contact with. It may make sense to test those who “are not sick” or don’t think that they are. I’m not a doctor, and not an expert on the issue, just my opinion on things.

Red text > THIS is why people need to stop traveling and follow the shelter in place and social distancing. It's as simple as that.
Instead of wasting tests on hundreds of millions of people.