Are RV Sales About to Tank?

[dryfly]

I would assume that we will eventually see demand for RV's slow down, but will we see the MSRP for new trailers decrease? In the past, when items went up in price due to supply interruption or inflation, it seems prices never returned to the original. Look at products that are petroleum based. After crude oil spiked in 2008, and prices came back down, gasoline prices declined, but products made from oil never seemed to return to normal. That quart of oil we purchase for our vehicles never seemed to return to pre-2008 prices, even in 2020 when oil sold for about $20/barrel.

I wonder if the changes being seen in the way automobile dealers do business are the new norm? We may see a new business model of vehicles selling at or very near MSRP sticker price. Also, dealers may stock less inventory and custom ordering may be common.

Bottom line: it all comes back to supply and demand, but we have all seen many business practices change over the years.

[Corky2]

I would assume that we will eventually see demand for RV's slow down, but will we see the MSRP for new trailers decrease? In the past, when items went up in price due to supply interruption or inflation, it seems prices never returned to the original. Look at products that are petroleum based. After crude oil spiked in 2008, and prices came back down, gasoline prices declined, but products made from oil never seemed to return to normal. That quart of oil we purchase for our vehicles never seemed to return to pre-2008 prices, even in 2020 when oil sold for about $20/barrel.

I wonder if the changes being seen in the way automobile dealers do business are the new norm? We may see a new business model of vehicles selling at or very near MSRP sticker price. Also, dealers may stock less inventory and custom ordering may be common.

Bottom line: it all comes back to supply and demand, but we have all seen many business practices change over the years.

If customers stop buying products the seller must lower prices or go out of business.

[WhittleBurner]

At last year's national rally I asked Don Clark if he thought the prices would come back down after we got past covid. His response was he thought the prices would remain where they are.

[goducks14]

Out here in Oregon the lots I drive by are less than 1/2 full. Only the big super lots have a decent inventory. But many are carrying cheaper low end stuff that they didn't carry before Covid.
There's an RV show next weekend and just for giggles we sometimes go as it's cheap fun. 2 for 1 entry and free parking. Won't go this year as most participating dealers don't have anything worth looking at.
I highly doubt MSRP will come down. When's the last time the MSRP went down on anything. I would say the bargaining power will increase and buyers should be able to get back to the 30% off MSRP at some point if sales slow down.
According to RV Business manufacturers shipped over 600,000 RV last year setting a new record. Only reason sales will tank is if new buyers are priced out of the market. Which IMO is coming soon. Or the economy tanks or gas goes to $4.50 gal.
Some of the brands in the PNW are still so hot that most dealers that carry them are sold out through April or longer.
Ordering a new TT/5er from one of those brands (ORV-Northwood) puts you near the middle to end of 2022.
Right now you'd have to pay me to buy a new RV. I don't mind paying more when I get more but buyers now are paying way more for the same.
YMMV

[MarkRizRV]

I was thinking today that at some point there will be a flood of RVs on the market, then used pricing will hit rock bottom and new units will have to be discounted aggressively to convince people to buy.
Mark

[Redapple63]

I think the same thing is going to happen to the rv industry that happened to the auto industry albeit for different reasons.

The auto industry has been hit for supply chain and specific shortages, such as specialty chips.

The rv has continued to produce due to substitutions, sometimes not very good ones, or promissory notes or even worse , outright omissions/deletions. They have driven the price up artificially more than normal using these tactics to keep product flowing.

What is going to happen is many of the people that have purchased will now either trade or sell causing an eventual market surplus, similar to today’s auto industry. Car Max, Carvana and the like are cleaning up on the used market, and those prices are also inflated, in many cases close to new. When this surplus happens and it will the market will be chaos. The market will correct but not crash. New market will never come back to pre pandemic levels. Smaller fish may get acquired or go under.

[PTParker]

I think the same thing is going to happen to the rv industry that happened to the auto industry albeit for different reasons.

The auto industry has been hit for supply chain and specific shortages, such as specialty chips.

The rv has continued to produce due to substitutions, sometimes not very good ones, or promissory notes or even worse , outright omissions/deletions. They have driven the price up artificially more than normal using these tactics to keep product flowing.

What is going to happen is many of the people that have purchased will now either trade or sell causing an eventual market surplus, similar to today’s auto industry. Car Max, Carvana and the like are cleaning up on the used market, and those prices are also inflated, in many cases close to new. When this surplus happens and it will the market will be chaos. The market will correct but not crash. New market will never come back to pre pandemic levels. Smaller fish may get acquired or go under.

I got a quote from Carvana about two weeks ago on my 2016 HD for about 7 thousand more than I gave for it new!!!

[BigSam]

I passed a few lots on the Interstate that looked full, but my dealer had only a couple of GD and no Airstreams. Wanted 5k down and 8mo delivery on a new Aitstream. He had 1 Lance. Had no Allegro or Newmar Class A.

What the had was a bunch of off brand that camping World might sell. This is a big dealer in the Memphis area. Had my GD in for yearly check over. I no longer climb up on the roof and check for leaks and do wheel bearings. 70 years old.

[dpisano]

I'm noticing a lot of used trailers for sell now and many are only a year or two old.

This is what most people have been predicted for a while now. About 6 months ago, dealers were reporting a massive influx of requests to purchase RVs which were puchased during hte pandemic. With hundreds of thousands of people buying RVs they don't use or who were not expecting the work involved, along with the massive expense for something the average user uses 14 nights/year, the massive influx of RVs hitting the secondary market will no-doubt depress new demand.

With supply chain issues and labor shortages, wait until 2023 to buy anything new or new for you. Going to be an exponential amount of deals for used RVs and a subsequent "discounting" and incentives from manufacturers as demand drops based on the massive increase in secondary sales. In addition, with material, component, and labor shortages, you will most likley get a better built vehicle in 2023 or 2024, as every manufacturer in America is experiencing major quality problems now. Worst time to buy new right now.

I can't find the article, but as the Covid-19 restrictions ease and more and more RVs hit the secondary market, the inflation will subside, incentives will increase, and new demand will be depressed. Just last month on our corporate internal board, 52 RVs hit the site for sale by people who purchased in 2020 who only used the damn things 1-2 times. One guy offered me his truck and 5th wheel he paid over $200K for a discount. I offered $150 for both and he is thinking about it :-)

The wife and I were thinking about upgrading and we are expecting to steal one in 2023 on the secondary market or order new when the dealer demand starts to slow down.

[Lawdog]

We pay close attention to the market and because the time was otherwise right, we put our camper up for sale last Saturday night at 2200 hours. We had it sold the next day early afternoon to the first potential buyer. We got out of it what we paid new in 2015 and everyone felt great about the deal. Craziness. A similar camper out at our local big dealer was in the mid-$70k range, which is just lunacy. They have very little inventory and said they're placeholders to show customers. They are not selling what's on their lot and instead are placing orders. Won't even lock the price at order time. Toy haulers we looked at in October are now $30k higher, supposedly because of increases from the manufacturers... At some point, there's a line of reason that most folks won't cross. I have to think we're getting close. I won't even comment on the build quality of much of what is showing up on lots these days.

Our decision was easy. We looked all over the country and were patient and careful. In the end, we made a fair deal on our used Momentum and here I am...