Are RV Sales About to Tank?

[dbphillips]

I got a quote from Carvana about two weeks ago on my 2016 HD for about 7 thousand more than I gave for it new!!!

Go order a new one! Might be too late, though.

We pulled the trigger last September on our diesel Tahoe at a dealer that would take a Family First order (shameless plug for Lee Johnson Chevrolet!) and all of the valuation tools I see put used ones worth about $10k more than we are paying. There is a powerful motivation in folks that have to have it now. Bonus is we get the second year of production, so hopefully less issues.

They have only 8 new vehicles on the lot, according to their web page: a Trax and 7 Silverado 1500s. Took us a month waiting for the Tahoe order to be accepted, then 3 months to build and a couple weeks to deliver.

[ajg617]

Interesting - I just got an email from selling dealer asking if I wanted to upgrade to a 2022/3. Lots are empty here.

[Corky2]

This is what most people have been predicted for a while now. About 6 months ago, dealers were reporting a massive influx of requests to purchase RVs which were puchased during hte pandemic. With hundreds of thousands of people buying RVs they don't use or who were not expecting the work involved, along with the massive expense for something the average user uses 14 nights/year, the massive influx of RVs hitting the secondary market will no-doubt depress new demand.

With supply chain issues and labor shortages, wait until 2023 to buy anything new or new for you. Going to be an exponential amount of deals for used RVs and a subsequent "discounting" and incentives from manufacturers as demand drops based on the massive increase in secondary sales. In addition, with material, component, and labor shortages, you will most likley get a better built vehicle in 2023 or 2024, as every manufacturer in America is experiencing major quality problems now. Worst time to buy new right now.

I can't find the article, but as the Covid-19 restrictions ease and more and more RVs hit the secondary market, the inflation will subside, incentives will increase, and new demand will be depressed. Just last month on our corporate internal board, 52 RVs hit the site for sale by people who purchased in 2020 who only used the damn things 1-2 times. One guy offered me his truck and 5th wheel he paid over $200K for a discount. I offered $150 for both and he is thinking about it :-)

The wife and I were thinking about upgrading and we are expecting to steal one in 2023 on the secondary market or order new when the dealer demand starts to slow down.

We are heading into uncharted territory wrt inflation and the economy in general.

[Cenerus]

I was just at my local RV dealer last week. They had lots of inventory. I suspect that we’re beginning to see a slow down in the RV market with people able to fly to places like the Caribbean, Hawaii and Mexico for vacations again. States like New York are getting rid of mask mandates now that Omicron is beginning to subside. The cruise industry is beginning to announce that mandatory testing and masking will be suspended soon. The US, Caribbean and Europe may well be back to normal vacation activities by the spring. Once that happens people who got into RV’ing out of lack of other vacation options will lose interest in their rigs and start selling them. I expect that after the summer of 2022 we’ll see a lot of relatively new RV’s being sold. By fall of 2023 the industry will be in massive decline as a flood of used 2020 and 2021 rv’s sits unsold on dealer lots. Many of those units with under 2,000 miles on them. The good news is that the RV manufacturers may be forced to do something to make new units appear more desirable than the used rigs. We may see brand new models appear with innovative designs that make the used rigs look dated and undesirable. Things could be looking up by 2024.

[Dale B]

Depressing thread my 2022 310 GK is about 1 month away from landing @ the dealership. I really want to follow this thru & take delivery, I also am very comfortable leaving the bank account alone LOL.

I have a 2010 Jayco Eagle that I need to sell, the inflated used market was a factor in the buying decision. Starting this buying process over a year ago now, I've seen first hand the crazy price increases.

Hanging on to the used Jayco another year or two is probably not a wise choice either.

Things that me go hmmmmmm

[dryfly]

I was just at my local RV dealer last week. They had lots of inventory. I suspect that we’re beginning to see a slow down in the RV market with people able to fly to places like the Caribbean, Hawaii and Mexico for vacations again. States like New York are getting rid of mask mandates now that Omicron is beginning to subside. The cruise industry is beginning to announce that mandatory testing and masking will be suspended soon. The US, Caribbean and Europe may well be back to normal vacation activities by the spring. Once that happens people who got into RV’ing out of lack of other vacation options will lose interest in their rigs and start selling them. I expect that after the summer of 2022 we’ll see a lot of relatively new RV’s being sold. By fall of 2023 the industry will be in massive decline as a flood of used 2020 and 2021 rv’s sits unsold on dealer lots. Many of those units with under 2,000 miles on them. The good news is that the RV manufacturers may be forced to do something to make new units appear more desirable than the used rigs. We may see brand new models appear with innovative designs that make the used rigs look dated and undesirable. Things could be looking up by 2024.

I've asked this question before. Most of the trailers sold over the last 2 years have probably been sold for a premium price, and financed for 10 years or more with a minimum down payment. This simply means the owner is financially greatly upside down. Can most of these owners really take the financial hit that selling their new trailer will bring in a depressed market? Couple this with an inflation strapped economy, and I'd say there will be many families close to the edge of disaster.

[trailrydr]

I've asked this question before. Most of the trailers sold over the last 2 years have probably been sold for a premium price, and financed for 10 years or more with a minimum down payment. This simply means the owner is financially greatly upside down. Can most of these owners really take the financial hit that selling their new trailer will bring in a depressed market? Couple this with an inflation strapped economy, and I'd say there will be many families close to the edge of disaster.

Yup.... im starting to find myself thinking the same thing. For me, as long as i can still park my less than 10yr old RV at a campground, and not have to replace it due to accident, fire, or tree falling on it, I gonna keep it cause its paid for and is really just adequate shelter when i want to camp. Kinda got over that new car smell years ago... Have owned LOTS of them, and built a few too!

[BobLandry]

I don't think sales will completely tank, but will slow down considerably. we saw a lot 1st time of buyers during covid, It was perceived to be the safest way to have family outings at minimal risk, unlike vacations in crowded areas. I think a lot of these buyers are going to become disenchanted with storage fees, fuel costs for towing, insurance costs, and the ever increasing unavailability and rising costs of campgrounds.
I look for an influx of late model trailers hit the market which in turn will entice dealers to make a choice of making deals to unload the units they stocked up on or sitting on a lot of inventory. The covid mess has created a dealers market, but I look for that to go the other way. I could be way off base, but we are already seeing this in the marine markets.

[KLuza2786]

I don't think sales will completely tank, but will slow down considerably. we saw a lot 1st time of buyers during covid, It was perceived to be the safest way to have family outings at minimal risk, unlike vacations in crowded areas. I think a lot of these buyers are going to become disenchanted with storage fees, fuel costs for towing, insurance costs, and the ever increasing unavailability and rising costs of campgrounds.
I look for an influx of late model trailers hit the market which in turn will entice dealers to make a choice of making deals to unload the units they stocked up on or sitting on a lot of inventory. The covid mess has created a dealers market, but I look for that to go the other way. I could be way off base, but we are already seeing this in the marine markets.

With gasoline currently getting closer to $ 4.00 per gallon nationwide average, crude oil headed above $ 100.00 per barrel, and the Soviet-Ukraine issue, we’re probably going to see $ 5.00 a gallon fuel costs in some parts of the country by summer. That, along with interest rate hikes, will put a huge damper on all RV sales.

[trailrydr]

I don't think sales will completely tank, but will slow down considerably. we saw a lot 1st time of buyers during covid, It was perceived to be the safest way to have family outings at minimal risk, unlike vacations in crowded areas. I think a lot of these buyers are going to become disenchanted with storage fees, fuel costs for towing, insurance costs, and the ever increasing unavailability and rising costs of campgrounds.
I look for an influx of late model trailers hit the market which in turn will entice dealers to make a choice of making deals to unload the units they stocked up on or sitting on a lot of inventory. The covid mess has created a dealers market, but I look for that to go the other way. I could be way off base, but we are already seeing this in the marine markets.

Yea... bought our boats when they where $1 - 2k a foot (25yrs ago). Now theyre $4k a foot. Still get compliments, runs great, and are paid for, BONUS!