Interesting discussion with an RV salesman on Sat

[Sportsdad60]

Our local "Big" RV lot here in K-town had a nicely priced 2019 Lance 1062 up for sale. We wanted to sell or trade in our current non-A/C truck camper that we use within our state for hunting and fishing trips.

Our salesman offered us $1000 more than we paid for our TC back 3 years ago. And negotiated (A little) down on the price of new rig.

So, discussion was that they (RV lot) cannot get enough inventory to stay open much longer. Apparently demand is the highest he's ever seen in 30+ years as a salesman, no shock there, Covid and all. The problem is supply. RV factories shutting down lines due to "not enough people to come back to work" was his comment as they're essentially being paid to stay at home. Add to that, people are holding onto their RVs, not much trade in going on. (They sell about 80% new and 20% used RVs)

His boss (the owner) said expect the unexpected in about 2 to 3 weeks, (Layoffs, shuttering business, this is one of 5 stores that the owners have)

He said if I ordered an Artic Fox today, it *might* be Feb 2022 before the order even hits the shop floor.

Scary times for RV salesmen this day and age.

 

[Timmer]

It's across industries. Restaurants that survived the covid closure mandates opened back back only to learn that they can't find servers and are now shutting their doors. Why would someone work when they can get paid to stay home? What exactly is the stimulus money stimulating?

 

[geotex1]

Yep! Where I live, which is somewhat remote, we have a lot of farm-to-table eateries, craft breweries and cideries that also offered bar service and small food menu. The breweries and cider makers decided to not reopen the bars and food because they cannot get help and have incredible success with pick up sales. The restaurants are only open Friday, Saturday and Sunday, limited hours, because they cannot get the staff...

 

[jakev383]

We lost somewhere around 40% of our local restaurants during our state wide lockdown (ie: they went out of business) from what I read. Now that restraunts can reopen, they are having problems finding staff. I've seen thousand dollar sign on bonuses, free phones being offered, etc. And some of that was for McDonalds! I even saw a sign that advertised no-interview jobs at one of the local McDonald's. I guess you just walk in and they'll put you to work?? But they also have frequent strikes for $15/hr.
I talked with another small manufacturer in Texas when I wanted to order some of their product, and their aluminum distributor had called them the day before and said they cannot get people to come back to work so they can't get orders together for raw materials right now.
But yeah, I have a distant family member who makes $100 more a month sitting at home than Home Depot was offering....

 

[JM0397]

I don't recall which entity released the report, but I saw yesterday that 1/3 of small businesses in the US are closed over the last 18 months.
Remember to support local and smaller biz when you can!

 

[WhittleBurner]

This can be a very interesting topic and very relevent to todays economy....

So PLEASE continue to keep any political comments out of it so we don't have to close it....

 

[openrangeowners]

The Auto industry and RV industry are having problems getting certain components. They are doing their best to continue to produce units, but if there is a shortage of a critical device needed in the RV, they cannot ship it. A reason for the Auto shortage is that certain critical chip makers shut down due to decreased orders a while back (shutting down is fairly quick, bringing production back up takes a long time).

Ford continued to build Super Duty trucks, but had to use one module between trucks to drive them to the Kentucky Speedway to have them sit until they can obtain more of these modules (ie: chip shortage victim).

Many of the things that are manufactured rely on just-in-time delivery of parts. The pandemic severely disrupted this. I believe workers and businesses are doing the best they can right now given the delayed disruption. And remember there are other countries that are currently facing what we (the US) faced back in November-January - before vaccines began to roll out. Countries like Japan, India are really getting hit hard right now - that negatively affects our ability to manufacture items that rely on components/products from these countries.

If someone has the intention of selling a vehicle or an RV, now is a great time to sell it and receive hopefully top dollar. If someone needs to buy something, now is a very tough time to do so. It is in the interest of everyone for this to correct itself over time and it will eventually. The built-up demand is not a bad thing. This is also a good time to find a job - I have a friend that has been out of work for years because he was caring for his elderly dad. His dad passed away recently, so he is now looking for a job and has multiple offers. Wishing him the best.

 

[attaboy]

We have a friend who wants to buy a small RV.
When do you see things loosening up?
Bob A.

 

[Ynot4me2]

We have a friend who wants to buy a small RV.
When do you see things loosening up?
Bob A.

My guess is another year. But what do I know about economy 101 during a pandemic. [emoji848] it sure are crazy times. Now that things are starting to open there's a workforce shortage and a backlog in manufacturing. Not a good combo. I guess it could be worse but heart really goes out to mom and pop shops that had to close for such a long time with no revenue but still had to pay bills and rent and so on.

Sent from my SM-P610 using Tapatalk

 

[Sportsdad60]

The Auto industry and RV industry are having problems getting certain components. They are doing their best to continue to produce units, but if there is a shortage of a critical device needed in the RV, they cannot ship it. A reason for the Auto shortage is that certain critical chip makers shut down due to decreased orders a while back (shutting down is fairly quick, bringing production back up takes a long time).

Ford continued to build Super Duty trucks, but had to use one module between trucks to drive them to the Kentucky Speedway to have them sit until they can obtain more of these modules (ie: chip shortage victim).

Many of the things that are manufactured rely on just-in-time delivery of parts. The pandemic severely disrupted this. I believe workers and businesses are doing the best they can right now given the delayed disruption. And remember there are other countries that are currently facing what we (the US) faced back in November-January - before vaccines began to roll out. Countries like Japan, India are really getting hit hard right now - that negatively affects our ability to manufacture items that rely on components/products from these countries.

If someone has the intention of selling a vehicle or an RV, now is a great time to sell it and receive hopefully top dollar. If someone needs to buy something, now is a very tough time to do so. It is in the interest of everyone for this to correct itself over time and it will eventually. The built-up demand is not a bad thing. This is also a good time to find a job - I have a friend that has been out of work for years because he was caring for his elderly dad. His dad passed away recently, so he is now looking for a job and has multiple offers. Wishing him the best.

Unsourced rumor is....the Japan chip plant will be back online in July. Ford will ship the "parked but no brains" vehicle to dealers when the brains come in. The dealers will be paid by Ford to install, and do the final QC check. This rumor makes sense, Ford is certainly not going to run 40,000+ super duties and F150s back down the assembly line.

 

[Sandi]

We have been to Elkhart, IN a couple of times this past month or two. There are literally fields of thousands of RV’s from every manufacturer sitting in them. There seems to be plenty of workers. The problem is not being able to get the necessary components i.e. air conditioners, generators, etc. to be able to finish them and ship them to the dealers for sale. A lot of the dealers have gone out of business because of the inability to get product. I fear this pandemic is going to leave a lot of lasting changes��

 

[geotex1]

We have been to Elkhart, IN a couple of times this past month or two. There are literally fields of thousands of RV’s from every manufacturer sitting in them. There seems to be plenty of workers. The problem is not being able to get the necessary components i.e. air conditioners, generators, etc. to be able to finish them and ship them to the dealers for sale. A lot of the dealers have gone out of business because of the inability to get product. I fear this pandemic is going to leave a lot of lasting changes��

Pretty much all of the major RV makers have suffered labor shortage due to COVID-19 running through their facilities, and while there's enough workers to run the lines there aren't enough in reserve. It's a really interesting dependency, and not unlike my mines and product lines in Wyoming... We have a bit more redundancy as we run 3 shifts, but the turndown to sanitize after an incident is tough, particularly because we can run all lines at 10% overcapacity and still not deliver product on-time! Fortunately, we are one of the few that are vertically integrated through most of our production and less affected by supply chain but are very challenged with labor and transport. It's far worse in my production around the world than the US.

 

[Canyonlight]

We have been to Elkhart, IN a couple of times this past month or two. There are literally fields of thousands of RV’s from every manufacturer sitting in them. There seems to be plenty of workers. The problem is not being able to get the necessary components i.e. air conditioners, generators, etc. to be able to finish them and ship them to the dealers for sale. A lot of the dealers have gone out of business because of the inability to get product. I fear this pandemic is going to leave a lot of lasting changes��

Allen & Sandi - good to hear from you.......hope you are doing well.

What you share is what Steve [MENTION=331]huntr70[/MENTION] has shared a few times over the months. In my communications with GDRV folks, while there was some period where many team members were away due to virus restrictions, they generally have had most all team members for several months now. However, even down a small % of the team for an extended time has created challenges for the balance. I have not had any communications recently and possibly our "free" tax $ money of the last several months and going forward is keeping some folks away.

Trust you are going to the Rally.......have a wonderful time ! Keep us posted as you learn more.

Dan

 

[OurNewEra]

Demand and no supply

Something needs to happen to correct all supply chains for products that contain technology or technologies that are taking materials from other necessary products. I am the purchasing manager for a city and we have our own municipal utility. Lead times on our electric transformers for residential and commercial services has grown to about 32 weeks. Understandable with everything (factory workers, steel supplies, increased construction/development, etc . . . ) that is going on. However, the next torpedo that will be headed our way is the supply of silicon iron (aka Silicon Core Iron) that is the core of these transformers. Guess what else uses silicon iron . . . electric vehicles! So as the production of EVs increases the supply of silicon iron will decrease.

Something has to give, and it will when it comes to products, new and old, competing for the same resources. It will be interesting to see which products will 'win' in capturing the resources they need to continue the production of their products. Do you want more EV's or uninterrupted power to your house, business, or your RV site? Install your solar now. Supply and demand is a basic concept of economics. I don't remember learning about demand and no supply in Economics 101. My motto right now is hang on to what I have and buy it when I find it; if I need it.

 

[attaboy]

Something needs to happen to correct all supply chains for products that contain technology or technologies that are taking materials from other necessary products. I am the purchasing manager for a city and we have our own municipal utility. Lead times on our electric transformers for residential and commercial services has grown to about 32 weeks. Understandable with everything (factory workers, steel supplies, increased construction/development, etc . . . ) that is going on. However, the next torpedo that will be headed our way is the supply of silicon iron (aka Silicon Core Iron) that is the core of these transformers. Guess what else uses silicon iron . . . electric vehicles! So as the production of EVs increases the supply of silicon iron will decrease.

Something has to give, and it will when it comes to products, new and old, competing for the same resources. It will be interesting to see which products will 'win' in capturing the resources they need to continue the production of their products. Do you want more EV's or uninterrupted power to your house, business, or your RV site? Install your solar now. Supply and demand is a basic concept of economics. I don't remember learning about demand and no supply in Economics 101. My motto right now is hang on to what I have and buy it when I find it; if I need it.

Case in point yesterday.
A friend has fallen in love with my Blackstone Griddle.
Since he can't have mine I went with him to get one, he wants a certain model with a certain stand.
5 Walmarts, several Sams, Home Depot, Lowes and a couple of Ace hardware we gave up.
He called their HQ in Utah and was told that their production has dropped to an all time low due to lack of materials.
They are not sure when full production will return. As noted by OurNewEra another screwed up supply chain.
As someone said "you can shut things down a heck of a lot quicker than you can restart".
The interesting thing to me about Blackstone is the materials are very basic.
Bob A.

 

[Dakota]

My refrigerator went up to 48 in the camper last night. First day of a 4 day trip. Oh no! My greatest fear was trying to get service from my dealer or even finding a mobile tech. Last year I needed work done on a home appliance. They are out 2-4 weeks. Fortunately, because of this site and information on other sites, I was able to troubleshoot it and got it back to proper temp. I’m not a handyman, but in today’s environment you better learn how to fend for yourself.

 

[OurNewEra]

Case in point yesterday.
A friend has fallen in love with my Blackstone Griddle.
Since he can't have mine I went with him to get one, he wants a certain model with a certain stand.
5 Walmarts, several Sams, Home Depot, Lowes and a couple of Ace hardware we gave up.
He called their HQ in Utah and was told that their production has dropped to an all time low due to lack of materials.
They are not sure when full production will return. As noted by OurNewEra another screwed up supply chain.
As someone said "you can shut things down a heck of a lot quicker than you can restart".
The interesting thing to me about Blackstone is the materials are very basic.
Bob A.

Yep. Luckily I ran out last Sunday and picked up my 4 burner Blackstone at our local Walmart. One of 4 in the store with no others in our area at other retailers.

It is going to take some time for everything to 'normalize'. Whatever that new normal will turn out to be.

 

[UltraC71]

I'm seeing people out for excess unemployment but also because they've figured out how to either live and not require two incomes (2 income family) OR have found employment in another field. I don't think there has been enough research done on that side of this pandemic. Vacation options have similarly changed. Rental rates on houses at popular vacation sites have doubled, even tripled in some locations because they are seeing less and less people going there. People don't want to spend that kind of money for a one week shot somewhere but are finding better opportunities in camping (I know we did). People who were working in hospitality services, for low wages, are finding jobs elsewhere for either the same money (but now with benefits) or more money. Yes, there are those still staying home and getting the stimulus funds, but they are saving instead of spending. Habits change in what...21 days? Many have had months on end to develop their new normal. Even with the mask mandates dropping off, the daily world as we knew it has changed. Like may have said, we all better get better at taking care of what we own on our own and finding ways to not have to rely on someone else to provide a meal or a vacation spot.
Great topic. Good minds putting what they are seeing out there.

 

[Fsalmy]

People who were working in hospitality services, for low wages, are finding jobs elsewhere for either the same money (but now with benefits) or more money.

Here in our small town of ~7,000 people, the higher end restaurants are now offering not only signing bonuses, but health, dental and IRA contributions for wait staff. And they still can't get enough employees to stay open 7 days/week. We know the owner of one of the nicer (if not the nicest) restaurants in town. People are signing on at his restaurant, waiting the 30 days to get their $1000 signing bonus, then quitting right after. His restaurant has gone to take out only Mon-Wed. He's not sure how much longer he can keep his place open. Sad state of affairs after being in business for 25+ years and offering an excellent dining experience.

 

[attaboy]

Here in our small town of ~7,000 people, the higher end restaurants are now offering not only signing bonuses, but health, dental and IRA contributions for wait staff. And they still can't get enough employees to stay open 7 days/week. We know the owner of one of the nicer (if not the nicest) restaurants in town. People are signing on at his restaurant, waiting the 30 days to get their $1000 signing bonus, then quitting right after. His restaurant has gone to take out only Mon-Wed. He's not sure how much longer he can keep his place open. Sad state of affairs after being in business for 25+ years and offering an excellent dining experience.

What this means to the dining public is higher bills at our favorite restaurants.
Bob A.